The resumption of production in Myanmar became clearer, and SHFE tin fluctuated and pulled back. [SHFE Market Closing Commentary on March 25]

Affected by the draft resumption plan released by Wa State, SHFE tin opened lower and continued to decline in the morning session, fluctuating upward in the afternoon with narrowed losses. Considering that the official resumption document has not yet been released, the overall decline in futures prices was relatively limited. The most-traded contract closed down 0.46% at 274,870 yuan/mt. In February, Indonesia's refined tin exports increased, easing the tight supply situation. LME destocking slowed down, while domestic social inventories continued to build up, leading to a retreat in risk premiums and a fluctuating pullback in tin prices.

According to the International Tin Association, the draft document released by the Central Economic Planning Committee of Wa State on March 23, 2025, clearly stated that the Manxiang mining area can orderly resume production after completing relevant procedures in accordance with the relevant documents. According to the draft, the Manxiang mining area will be divided into mining areas and exploration areas. The mining areas include existing mine tunnels, open-pit mining areas, and beneficiation plants, while the exploration areas are open to large enterprises for comprehensive exploration before formal design and mining. In principle, no new mine tunnels or open-pit mining areas will be approved in the existing Manxiang mining area. Additionally, companies engaged in mining and exploration must first apply for new licenses under the new licensing system announced in February. It is currently unclear how long this process will take. The International Tin Association estimates that it will take at least two months to fully resume normal mining.

Recently, tin prices have fluctuated and pulled back, with some smelters still holding a sentiment to stand firm on quotes, but actual transactions are rare. Traders actively entered the market to quote, and many reported that with the price decline, downstream purchase willingness has slightly warmed up. Transactions are mainly just-in-time procurement, and overall market activity has improved slightly. Although prices have pulled back from previous highs, they remain at elevated levels. End-user order willingness has slightly increased, but some end-users still maintain a wait-and-see attitude. Currently, overall orders are mostly just-in-time procurement. If futures prices decline significantly in the future, it may further stimulate overall end-user procurement sentiment.

Regarding the future market, Xinhu Futures commented that there is no significant change on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of further tightening in ore supply, smelters have not yet cut production. Recently, Indonesia's exports have rebounded significantly, and there is an expectation of increased domestic imports. The renewed climb in domestic visible inventories also reflects the current weak fundamentals. Short-term consumption is unlikely to improve significantly, and the pressure of inventory buildup is rising, suppressing the strength of tin prices. However, concerns on the supply side persist before the resumption of operations at mines in the DRC. With mixed bullish and bearish factors, tin prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term.