Escalation of Armed Conflict in DRC Significantly Impacts Global Tin Ore Supply SHFE Tin Prices May Remain in a Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

게시됨: Mar 24, 2025 08:49

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International macro, the escalation of armed conflict in DRC significantly impacted global tin ore supply. Alphamin's suspension of operations at its Bisie mine heightened market concerns over the supply side, while a weaker US dollar and favorable domestic policies also supported tin prices. In terms of the domestic tin ore market, the overall supply-demand pattern showed a tight trend. In terms of supply, although the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi saw a slight rebound, they were still constrained by tight raw material supply. Since Myanmar implemented a ban on tin mining in August 2023, there has been no clear timetable for resumption in 2025. Although Wa State released a resumption process document in February 2025, actual resumption would require going through application and approval procedures, with the earliest possible increase in supply expected in H2 2025. As a result, imports of tin ore from Myanmar continued to decline, exacerbating the tightness of domestic ore sources. At the same time, imports of tin ore from DRC and Australia decreased to some extent, with volumes declining. Due to rainy season transportation issues and political instability (such as the M23 armed conflict) in DRC, tin ore transportation was hindered at the beginning of 2025, affecting exports to China...

March 24, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary

On the macro front, the escalation of armed conflicts in DRC significantly impacted global tin ore supply. Alphamin's suspension of operations at its Bisie mine heightened market concerns over the supply side. Meanwhile, a weaker US dollar and favorable domestic policies also supported tin prices. In terms of the domestic tin ore market, the overall supply-demand pattern showed a tight trend. In terms of supply, although the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi saw a slight rebound, they were still constrained by tight raw material supply. Since Myanmar implemented a ban on tin mining in August 2023, there was no clear timetable for resumption of production in 2025. Although Wa State released a resumption process document in February 2025, actual resumption required going through application and approval procedures, with the earliest possible increase in supply expected in H2 2025. As a result, imports of tin ore from Myanmar continued to decline, exacerbating the tightness of domestic ore sources. At the same time, imports of tin ore from DRC and Australia decreased, with volumes declining. Due to rainy season transportation issues and political instability (such as the M23 armed conflict), tin ore transportation from DRC was hindered at the beginning of 2025, affecting exports to China. On the demand side, downstream solder companies mainly engaged in just-in-time procurement, with high prices suppressing restocking willingness. However, the trade-in policy and high home appliance production schedules provided potential support for demand, with social inventory remaining at low levels. Considering the dynamics of domestic and overseas markets and policy changes, it was expected that tin prices would continue to fluctuate upward in the following week. Investors needed to pay attention to the situation in DRC, the resumption of production in Wa State, and the direction of macro policies. It was advised to operate cautiously and avoid the risk of chasing highs.

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