Changes in Stainless Steel Import and Export Markets After Chinese New Year in February Ongoing Global Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers

SMM March 23 News,

In February 2025, China's stainless steel import and export market was affected by the Chinese New Year, with both imports and exports down MoM.

I. Import Market Analysis

(1) Overall Scale and Trend

According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in February 2025 were 166,000 mt, down 2% MoM and 27% YoY. In February, total stainless steel imports from Indonesia (excluding scrap) reached 135,800 mt, a sharp decrease of 32% YoY and a 2.5% decline MoM. This was mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday, during which companies halted operations and logistics were restricted, significantly suppressing import demand. In terms of import share, Indonesian stainless steel accounted for 81.7% of total imports in February, slightly lower than 82% in January.

(2) Changes in Import Product Structure

By product form, semi-manufactured products from Indonesia saw a significant reduction, down 46% MoM; hot-rolled products decreased 22% MoM and 60.3% YoY; while cold-rolled products showed a growth trend, up 16% MoM and 27.7% YoY. This structural change reflects the varying demand for different forms of stainless steel in the domestic market.

(3) Impact Factors

Downstream Demand: In February, domestic downstream demand for stainless steel in China decreased, compounded by the Chinese New Year holiday, further reducing import demand. After the holiday, end-use demand recovered slowly, but overall growth was limited. The construction industry was weak, with new starts expected to decline YoY, significantly inhibiting stainless steel consumption. Demand in the home appliance and automotive sectors increased, with NEVs and smart manufacturing becoming new growth points, though they have not yet significantly boosted import demand.

Raw Material Prices: Currently, high-grade NPI prices are rising, while high-carbon ferrochrome prices remain stable, affecting stainless steel price stability. Lacking sustained upward momentum, prices will fluctuate rangebound in the short term, making the market more cautious in procurement. Given the expected downstream demand in Q2, stainless steel imports in March are expected to increase both YoY and MoM.

II. Export Market Analysis

(1) Overall Scale and Trend

According to SMM statistics, China's total stainless steel exports in February 2025 were 337,000 mt, down 33% MoM but up 5% YoY. The significant MoM decline in February was mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday, which slowed logistics and trade activities. The YoY growth indicates some resilience in overseas demand for Chinese stainless steel, showing that Chinese stainless steel products still have competitiveness in the international market.

(2) Changes in Export Product Structure

By product form, raw material types such as narrow strip and pipe materials saw a decrease, while finished products increased 137% MoM. This change may be related to the phased demand for different forms of stainless steel in the overseas market.

(3) Impact Factors

Overseas Demand Environment: In Q1, the weak construction industry overseas somewhat inhibited stainless steel consumption, while demand growth in other emerging sectors was limited, leading to weaker demand for stainless steel.

International Trade Environment: In February 2025, the US imposed an additional 10% tariff on imported goods from China, which may affect the export volume of Chinese stainless steel to the US in the future. Additionally, the increase in local steel capacity in Southeast Asian countries has intensified supply-demand imbalances, leading to upgraded trade barriers, making the export environment for Chinese stainless steel more competitive.

Looking ahead to March, under the dual influence of the international situation, export tariffs, and the recovery of global downstream demand, stainless steel exports are expected to increase significantly. However, the long-term existence of global supply-demand imbalances will continue to impact China's stainless steel export market.