Import Window Remains Closed, Net Imports of Primary Aluminum Plunged YoY in January-February 2025 [SMM Analysis]

게시됨: Mar 22, 2025 14:17

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SMM Analysis: Net Imports of Primary Aluminum in January-February 2025 Plunge YoY as Import Window Remains Closed Aluminum prices continue to show LME outperforms SHFE, keeping the domestic import window closed. The import losses hover around 2600 yuan/mt, reducing the willingness of overseas suppliers to clear customs and ship to China. SMM expects that in March, primary aluminum imports into China will mainly be fulfilled through long-term contracts, with little prospect for an increase in net imports.

SMM March 22 News: Primary Aluminum Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum imports in January 2025 were approximately 161,000 mt, almost flat MoM and down 34.8% YoY; in February, imports were about 200,000 mt, up 24.0% MoM and down 10.7% YoY. Cumulative imports for January-February 2025 were around 362,000 mt, down 23.4% YoY.

Primary Aluminum Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum exports in January 2025 were approximately 8,000 mt, down 33.4% MoM and up 814.8% YoY; in February, exports were about 3,000 mt, down 59% MoM and up YoY. Cumulative exports for January-February 2025 were around 12,000 mt, up 1,116.9% YoY.

Net Imports of Primary Aluminum: Cumulative net imports of primary aluminum in January-February 2025 were approximately 349,800 mt, down 25.7% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

From the perspective of import sources, the main countries and regions for domestic primary aluminum imports in January-February 2025 were the Russian Federation, China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Among these, the total imports from Russia in January-February were about 313,300 mt, up 13.1% YoY, accounting for 87% of the total imports in January-February. Additionally, imports from China in January-February were about 8,600 mt, down 63.3% YoY. This portion mainly consisted of Chinese alumina exported to Russia, processed into aluminum ingots, and then re-imported to the Chinese market. In terms of the origin of the ingots, it was still primarily Russian aluminum. Therefore, the total imports from Russian sources in January-February reached 321,900 mt, accounting for 89% of the total domestic primary aluminum imports. Currently, overseas primary aluminum imports are in a loss state, and the import losses are expanding. Notably, some non-major import sources increased in January-February 2025, such as Qatar and Austria.

From the perspective of trade modes: In January-February, the losses on domestic primary aluminum imports expanded, and suppliers' willingness to clear customs and send goods to the Chinese market decreased. Most transactions were based on long-term contracts, with cumulative imports significantly down 23.4% YoY.

SMM Brief Comment: The current aluminum prices still maintain an LME outperforms SHFE trend. The domestic import window is closed, with import losses fluctuating around 2,600 yuan/mt. Overseas suppliers' willingness to clear customs and send goods to China has decreased. SMM expects that in March 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports will mainly be based on long-term contracts, and it will be difficult to see an increase in net imports.

(The above information is derived from market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct advice for investment decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data Source: SMM
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