In January-February 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports surged 25.5% YoY, and the import volume may continue to show an upward trend in the short term

SMM March 21 News:

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in January 2025, China's bauxite imports reached 16.21 million metric tons (mt), marking an 8.23% increase month-on-month (MoM) and a 23.31% rise year-on-year (YoY). In February, bauxite imports were reported at 14.41 million mt, down 11.06% MoM but up 28.25% YoY. For the first two months of 2025, the cumulative bauxite imports amounted to 30.62 million mt, representing a 25.6% YoY increase.

Major Bauxite Import Sources:

Guinea:

January 2025: Imports from Guinea stood at 12.661 million mt, up 21.9% MoM and 37.18% YoY.

February 2025: Imports fell to 10.729 million mt, down 15.26% MoM but up 21.17% YoY.

This significant YoY increase in bauxite imports from Guinea can be attributed to a substantial rise in CIF prices starting from November 2024. This price hike boosted shipping enthusiasm among Guinean miners, resulting in a noticeable increase in shipments. Given the impact of shipping times, China's bauxite imports from Guinea saw a clear rise in January-February. From January to mid-March 2025, the daily average shipment volume from Guinea increased compared to November-December 2024, suggesting that bauxite imports from Guinea are likely to rise again in March-April 2025.

Australia:

January 2025: Imports from Australia were 2.922 million mt.

February 2025: Imports dropped to 2.363 million mt.

This decline was primarily due to the onset of the rainy season in Australia, which significantly reduced the bauxite supply. However, starting from mid-March, the impact of the rainy season weakened, causing shipment volumes to rebound. Consequently, Australian bauxite imports are also expected to see a rebound in March-April 2025.

Non-Major Bauxite Import Sources:

From January to February 2025, bauxite imports from countries such as Turkey, Laos, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Malaysia, Montenegro, India, Pakistan, and Guyana totaled 1.95 million mt. This represents a 139% YoY increase, accounting for 6.36% of total imports.

SMM Brief Comment:

In the short term, alumina refineries might cut production under the pressure of losses, potentially leading to a decline in bauxite demand. On the supply side, imported bauxite is expected to show a growing trend, particularly with a notable increase from Guinea. Thus, the fundamental supply and demand situation for bauxite might shift towards a relatively loose pattern, placing pressure on bauxite prices in the near term.