SHFE Tin Prices Hover at Highs as Downstream Procurement Remains in a Wait-and-See Sentiment [SMM Tin Futures Brief]

게시됨: Mar 12, 2025 16:54

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[SMM Tin Market Brief: SHFE Tin Prices Hover at Highs, Downstream Procurement Remains Cautious] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2504 contract closed at 263,480 yuan/mt, up 0.38% (+1,000 yuan/mt) from the previous trading day. The intraday price center hovered around 263,000 yuan/mt, showing a high-level oscillation pattern. After opening higher in the morning, prices surged briefly, supported by the pullback of the US dollar and favorable domestic policies. However, gains narrowed due to expectations of production resumption in Myanmar and cautious sentiment in downstream procurement. Total daily trading volume reached 63,200 lots, while open interest slightly decreased by 141 lots to 29,900 lots. Market activity remained stable, but funds showed a cautious stance. Attention should be paid to the potential breakout of the resistance at 265,000 yuan/mt and the support at 260,000 yuan/mt...

Daily Review of SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract on March 12, 2025
The most-traded SHFE tin SN2504 contract closed at 263,480 yuan/mt on the day, up 0.38% (+1,000 yuan/mt) from the previous trading day. The intraday price center remained around 263,000 yuan/mt, showing a high-level fluctuation pattern. After opening higher in the morning, prices surged briefly, supported by the pullback in the US dollar and domestic policy incentives. However, gains narrowed due to expectations for Myanmar's production resumption and cautious sentiment in downstream procurement. Total daily trading volume reached 63,200 lots, with open interest slightly decreasing by 141 lots to 29,900 lots. Market activity remained stable, but funds leaned towards caution. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 265,000 yuan/mt and the support level at 260,000 yuan/mt.

Supply-Side Disturbances
Myanmar Production Resumption Expectations: The process for obtaining production resumption permits for Wa State tin mines has been announced, and the market expects a gradual easing of tin concentrate supply. However, the actual resumption timeline remains uncertain.
Indonesia Export Recovery: Tin exports in March are expected to continue growing, further alleviating supply pressure.
Domestic Production: Operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded to 63.25%. However, structural imbalances in raw materials persist, and processing fees are near cost levels, limiting capacity release.

Demand-Side Performance
End-Use Demand: Just-in-time procurement dominates in sectors such as electronic solder and tinplate. High prices suppress restocking willingness, but trade-in policies and high production schedules for home appliances provide potential support for demand.

Macro and Financial Factors
Domestic Policies: The Two Sessions signaled a focus on stable growth, with the central bank encouraging medium and long-term funds to enter the market, boosting expectations for economic recovery.
Overseas Disturbances: US tariff policy fluctuations and volatility in US equities dampen risk appetite, but expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continue to provide bottom-line support for metal prices.

In the short term, tin prices are likely to maintain high-level fluctuations. It is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Focus on the progress of Myanmar's production resumption, Indonesia's export data, and the pace of domestic policy implementation.

데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.

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