Policy Support and Supply Looseness in Tug-of-War, SHFE Tin Prices Hover at High Levels [SMM Tin Midday Review]

게시됨: Mar 11, 2025 11:11

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[SMM Tin Midday Review: Policy Support and Loose Supply in Tug-of-War, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs] As of today's midday session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2504 contract closed at 262,170 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.21% from the previous trading day's settlement price. SHFE tin prices edged lower in the morning session, hitting bottom before rebounding, supported by technical buying during the session. Prices hovered around 262,000 yuan/mt, with the decline narrowing slightly. By midday, the price center remained in the 261,000-263,000 yuan/mt range, showing a "high-level consolidation, poised for breakout" pattern. Trading volume reached 46,400 lots, and open interest stood at 30,300 lots. Overseas market linkage: LME tin prices fell to around $32,565/mt (-0.38%). The price spread between domestic and overseas markets widened slightly, but high domestic import losses continued to limit the inflow of overseas tin ingots. Market risk appetite improved, with some safe-haven funds shifting to the commodity market. Domestic policy signals (such as the "trade-in" policy and the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds) boosted expectations for industrial metal demand. Combined with the valuation advantage following the previous correction in tin prices, funds were attracted to enter the market. Domestic production fluctuated at highs: In February, domestic refined tin production reached 14,050 mt, up 10.02% YoY. However, expectations of loose ore supply intensified due to anticipated production resumption in Wa State, Myanmar. Indonesian exports resumed: Indonesia's tin exports in March are expected to continue growing, but LME inventory remains at low levels, indicating that the tight balance in overseas spot tin persists. Policy support transmission: The State Council's "trade-in" policy is gradually driving consumption of home appliances and electronic products, enhancing the resilience of tin consumption.

March 11, 2025, SHFE Tin Futures Midday Commentary

As of midday, the most-traded SHFE tin 2504 contract was quoted at 262,170 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.21% from the previous trading day's settlement price. SHFE tin edged lower in the morning session before hitting bottom and rebounding, supported by technical buying during the session. Prices hovered around 262,000 yuan/mt, with the decline narrowing slightly. The midday price center remained in the range of 261,000-263,000 yuan/mt, showing a "high-level consolidation, poised for an attack" pattern. Trading volume reached 46,400 lots, and open interest stood at 30,300 lots.

Overseas Market Linkage: LME tin prices fell to around $32,565/mt (-0.38%), with the price spread between domestic and overseas markets slightly widening. However, domestic import losses remained high, limiting the inflow of overseas tin ingots.

Market risk appetite rebounded, with some safe-haven funds shifting to the commodity market. Positive domestic policy signals (such as the "trade-in" policy and the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds) boosted expectations for industrial metal demand. Coupled with valuation advantages following the previous correction in tin prices, funds were attracted to enter the market for positioning.Domestic production fluctuated at highs: In February, domestic refined tin production reached 14,050 mt, up 10.02% YoY. However, expectations of relaxed ore supply intensified due to anticipated production resumption in Wa State, Myanmar. Indonesian exports recovered: Indonesia's tin exports in March are expected to continue growing, but LME inventory remained at low levels, indicating that the tight balance in overseas spot tin markets has not changed. Policy benefits transmission: The State Council's "trade-in" policy gradually stimulated consumption of home appliances and electronic products, reinforcing the resilience of tin consumption.

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