SHFE Tin Contracts Continue to Fluctuate Upward with Polarized Trends in Domestic and Overseas Markets [SMM Tin Midday Review]

March 10, 2025, Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract

Market Update:
During the morning session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2504 contract continued to fluctuate upward. It closed at 262,220 yuan/mt at midday, up 290 yuan (0.11%) from the previous settlement price. The intraday high reached 263,600 yuan/mt, while the low dipped to 261,020 yuan/mt. Trading activity remained robust, with a trading volume of 59,900 lots.

1. Domestic Policy Support: The State Council's "trade-in" policy continues to gain traction. Coupled with expectations of peak consumption seasons in downstream sectors such as semiconductors and PV, market confidence in the recovery of tin demand has strengthened.

2. Weaker US Dollar Support: The US dollar index hovered around 103.8, driving a rebound in the metals sector. SHFE tin followed the overseas market, with LME tin currently quoted at $32,400/mt, to move higher.

Afternoon Focus:

1. Overseas Market Linkage: LME tin is currently down slightly by 0.15%. If LME tin prices pull back further in the afternoon, SHFE tin may face increased downward pressure.
2. Policy Expectations: Details of the domestic "ultra-long-term special government bonds" may be announced during the Two Sessions. If the outcome falls short of expectations, bullish sentiment could cool.