Tug-of-War Between Supply and Demand Intensifies, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuates Rangebound, Price Hovering Around 256,000 Yuan/mt [SMM Tin Midday Review]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tug-of-War Between Supply and Demand Intensifies, The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuates Rangebound Around 256,000 Yuan/mt] This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) continued its rangebound fluctuation pattern, with prices hovering around 256,000 yuan/mt. As of midday, the most-traded contract was temporarily quoted at 256,900 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 0.53% compared to the previous day's closing price. Market sentiment has slightly improved compared to the past two days, but overall trading remains cautious, with open interest staying stable. Expectations for the resumption of tin ore production in Wa State, Myanmar, persist, but actual resumption requires a three-month preparation period, leaving the short-term tight supply situation unresolved. Meanwhile, the escalation of M23 armed conflict in the DRC threatens local tin ore transportation, further exacerbating supply uncertainties. Domestic smelters' operating rates remain low, and spot market supply is relatively tight. The upcoming Two Sessions in China, coupled with strong February manufacturing PMI data (50.2), have created a positive macro atmosphere. However, market expectations for policy strength are divided, leading some funds to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Overseas, rising risks of US economic stagflation and fluctuating expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have indirectly impacted tin prices.