Myanmar Tin Ore Resumption Triggers Price Fluctuations, Two Sessions Policy Expectations Become Key Variable [SMM Tin Brief Review]

​Daily Review of SHFE Tin Futures on March 3, 2025​

I. Price Performance​
Today, the most-traded SHFE tin 2504 contract closed up by 0.29% at 255,910 yuan/mt, with a trading volume of 16.066 billion yuan. Despite fluctuating rangebound during the day, prices stabilized compared to the previous two days, and market sentiment gradually recovered.

II. Market Dynamics​

1. ​Policy and Macro Front: The domestic Two Sessions are about to convene, coupled with strong performances in both official and Caixin manufacturing PMI data, creating a warm macro atmosphere. However, there are differing expectations regarding the strength of policies, leading some funds to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

2. ​Supply-Side Disruptions: The expectation of the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, persists, but actual resumption requires a three-month preparation period, leaving the short-term tight supply situation fundamentally unchanged. Meanwhile, the escalation of M23 armed conflict in the DRC threatens local tin ore transportation, exacerbating supply uncertainties.

3. ​Demand Recovery: Following a significant pullback in tin prices, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness has rebounded, and spot market orders have increased. However, the overall recovery in consumption still requires time for validation.

III. Technical Analysis​
The most-traded SHFE tin contract is currently fluctuating within the range of 252,000-255,000 yuan/mt. The MACD indicator shows weakening bearish momentum, but short-term moving averages continue to exert resistance on prices. LME tin inventory remains at low levels, while unreported inventory pressure persists.

IV. Future Outlook​

1. ​Short Term (March-April): Focus on the pace of policy implementation for Myanmar's resumption and the situation in the DRC. If resumption is delayed or conflicts escalate, tin prices may rebound to 260,000-270,000 yuan/mt; conversely, if resumption progresses faster than expected, prices may dip to 245,000 yuan/mt.
2. ​Medium Term (May-June): After verifying the port arrivals of Myanmar tin ore, if the supply increase meets expectations, the price center may pull back to 240,000-250,000 yuan/mt. However, emerging demand growth from AI hardware and new energy may provide support, making a pullback to 230,000-240,000 yuan/mt an opportunity to build long positions.