The Expectation That the US Fed Will Keep Rates Unchanged in March Strengthens; SHFE Tin Futures Jump Initially and Then Pull Back [SMM Tin Brief Review]

Daily Review of SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract on February 26, 2025 

On February 26, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2503) opened at 262,300 yuan/mt, reached an intraday high of 265,300 yuan/mt and a low of 261,200 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 261,770 yuan/mt, down 1,580 yuan from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.6%. The trading volume amounted to 8.206 billion yuan, with open interest fluctuating slightly.

Today, SHFE tin futures exhibited a trend of jumping initially and then pulling back. In the morning session, prices surged to 265,300 yuan/mt, supported by low LME tin inventory and a decline in Indonesian tin ingot exports. However, prices quickly pulled back due to a rebound in the US dollar index and profit-taking by bulls. In the afternoon, market sentiment remained subdued, leading to an expanded decline by the close. Technically, the most-traded contract faced resistance in the range of 260,000-265,000 yuan/mt, with MACD red bars shrinking, indicating potential short-term adjustment pressure. 

- Expectations for the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in March strengthened, driving the US dollar higher and weighing on risk assets. Market concerns over US plans to impose additional tariffs on copper imports further exacerbated worries about trade policies. 
- Domestic Two Sessions policy expectations are heating up, but investors remain cautious about the US PCE inflation data to be released on Friday. Liquidity easing expectations provide limited support for base metals.  

In the short term, SHFE tin futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating downward trend, with the main trading range referenced at 260,000-265,000 yuan/mt: