Myanmar Tin Ore Production Resumption Yet to Materialize, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Tin Midday Review]

SHFE Tin 2503 Contract Futures Midday Review

On the morning of February 20, 2025, boosted by macro sentiment, the SHFE Tin 2503 contract showed a fluctuating upward trend. The opening price hovered around 260,000 yuan/mt, and the final closing price was 262,280 yuan/mt, up 0.26% from the previous trading day. Trading volume reached 46,800 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,596 lots to 25,400 lots.

Macro Factors: Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that there is no rush to cut interest rates. The rise in US Treasury yields, combined with uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, led to a decline in market risk appetite, exerting pressure on tin prices.

Supply-Demand Relationship: Supply side, the anticipated resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar has yet to materialize, while domestic tin ore supply remains relatively stable, though inventory pressure is significant. Demand side, growth in demand from the electronics industry and new energy sector supports tin prices, but traditional consumption remains weak, with downstream enterprises resuming operations at a slow pace and market trading activity subdued.

In the short term, SHFE tin futures prices are expected to hover at highs, with a reference range of 258,000 to 265,000 yuan/mt. Tight supply conditions and robust demand from the new energy sector will continue to support tin prices, but uncertainties in macro policies and weak traditional consumption may limit the upside room for prices. Investors should closely monitor US Fed policy developments and the progress of tin ore production resumption in Myanmar.