Indonesian Exports Recover but Decline MoM; SHFE Tin Fluctuates Rangebound [SMM Tin Market Brief]

Daily Review of SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract on February 13, 2025

The most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2503) fluctuated upward today. The opening price was 259,010 yuan/mt, higher than the previous trading day's settlement price. During the session, it reached a high of 259,540 yuan/mt and eventually closed at 257,990 yuan/mt, up 0.36% from the previous settlement price. The intraday trading volume amounted to 17.668 billion yuan. Over the past five days, SHFE tin has slightly declined by 0.02%, showing a rangebound fluctuation pattern overall.

2. Fundamental Analysis

1. Supply and Demand Dynamics

   • Indonesia's Exports Recovered but Declined MoM: Indonesia's refined tin exports in January totaled 1,566.26 mt, a significant MoM decrease of 66.6%, but a notable YoY increase, mainly due to a low base last year caused by mining license issues.

   • Domestic Supply Under Pressure: Tin concentrate processing fees in Yunnan continued to decline, coupled with the slow resumption of smelters after the Chinese New Year holiday. Domestic refined tin production in January decreased by 24.61% MoM, leading to short-term supply tightness.

   • Spot Discounts Widened: SMM 1# tin ingot spot prices were quoted at 257,200 yuan/mt, with a discount of 790 yuan/mt compared to the futures most-traded contract's closing price, reflecting that downstream demand has not fully recovered.

2. Macro and Industry Factors

   • Correlation Between the US Dollar and Base Metals: The US dollar index hovered at lows, supporting the valuation of the base metals sector. The US's delayed tariff hike policy on Canada and Mexico stimulated short-term stockpiling in the electronics industry chain, indirectly benefiting tin consumption.

   • Diverging Inventory Pressure: LME tin inventory continued its destocking trend, while domestic futures inventory slightly accumulated recently. Attention is needed on post-holiday downstream resumption progress and its impact on inventory digestion.

   • Technical Patterns: On the daily chart, the MACD indicator's red bars shortened, indicating weakened upward momentum. Prices faced resistance near the 260,000 yuan mark, requiring attention to whether this resistance level can be breached.

   • Open Interest Changes: The most-traded contract saw reduced open interest and a pullback during the day, with some bulls taking profits. However, the night session's higher opening suggests ongoing divergence among funds.

   • 5. Market Outlook

     In the short term, SHFE tin prices are expected to hover at highs, with mixed bullish and bearish factors:

   • Bullish Factors: A weaker US dollar, expectations of overseas destocking, tight domestic supply, and policy-driven demand stimulation.

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   • Bearish Risks: Slower-than-expected downstream resumption, widened spot discounts suppressing purchase willingness, and selling pressure triggered by high prices.