SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Rangebound as Market Focuses on US Inflation and Myanmar Tin Ore Issues [SMM Tin Brief Review]

Daily Review of SHFE Tin Futures on February 12, 2025

On February 12, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2503 contract opened at 256,360 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high of 258,500 yuan/mt and a low of 255,400 yuan/mt, before closing at 256,980 yuan/mt, down 640 yuan or 0.25% from the previous trading day. Trading volume stood at 47,936 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,005 lots to 29,031 lots.

Today, SHFE tin futures prices exhibited a fluctuating trend, rising initially before pulling back. In the morning session, prices were boosted by macro sentiment, surging to 258,500 yuan/mt. However, prices later pulled back and closed lower due to profit-taking by bulls and concerns over uncertainties in US Fed policy. From a technical perspective, the most-traded SHFE tin contract hovered at highs within the range of 255,000 to 265,000 yuan/mt, lacking a clear short-term direction.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that there is no rush to cut interest rates, while US Treasury yields rose. Combined with uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, this led to a decline in market risk appetite, exerting pressure on tin prices. The traditional consumption sector remained weak, with downstream enterprises resuming operations at a slow pace, resulting in low market trading activity.

Market sentiment was cautious today, with bulls opting for profit-taking after prices surged, leading to a reduction in open interest. Investors are broadly focused on the upcoming US inflation data and the expected resumption of tin mine production in Myanmar, which could impact the supply side.

In the short term, SHFE tin futures prices are expected to hover at highs, with a reference range of 253,000 to 263,000 yuan/mt. Tight supply conditions and robust demand from the new energy sector will continue to support tin prices, but uncertainties in macro policies and weakness in traditional consumption may limit upside room. Investors should closely monitor US Fed policy developments and progress in the resumption of tin mine production in Myanmar.