December Aluminum Extrusion Exports Fell Over 40% MoM, Likely to Remain Weak in the Short Term [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, January 22:

According to customs data, China's aluminum extrusion exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) in December 2024 totaled 74,100 mt, down 40.04% MoM and 16.58% YoY. The decline was mainly due to the Ministry of Finance's announcement on November 15 to cancel the aluminum semis export tax rebate policy starting December 1, leading to a rush to meet deadlines in November that overdrew subsequent export volumes.

Among export registration locations, the top three provinces in December were Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu. Chongqing saw a surge in export volumes, while other provinces experienced significant declines.

For export destinations, Vietnam ranked first in December, accounting for 10% of exports, followed by Israel at 8% and the Philippines at 5%.

In summary, the cancellation of the aluminum semis export tax rebate policy in December led to a rush in November, causing a significant pullback in December export volumes. Currently, SMM has learned that some companies, concerned about potential overseas tariff hikes, are still actively producing export orders, but the scale remains limited and cannot offset the overall downward trend in export volumes. January aluminum semis exports are expected to continue weakening MoM, and attention should be paid to changes in overseas aluminum semis tariffs.

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