In December, the overseas market, influenced by the expectation of increased tariffs, saw relatively ideal consumption of stainless steel products in the short term [SMM Analysis].

Imports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in December 2024 totaled 152,300 mt, up approximately 11.09% MoM from November but down 47.24% YoY. The cumulative total for January-December 2024 was about 1.978 million mt, down approximately 16.43% YoY. Stainless steel imports from Indonesia in December amounted to 108,800 mt, up 11.77% MoM (11,500 mt) but down approximately 54.86% YoY, with a cumulative YoY decline of about 9.80%. By product type, Indonesia's cold-rolled imports in December increased by approximately 12,600 mt, hot-rolled imports increased by 5,200 mt, while semi-manufactured products decreased by 6,400 mt. Currently, the total volume of stainless steel returning from Indonesia has increased, coupled with some pre-holiday stockpiling in the market, which may lead to a certain level of inventory buildup after the holiday.

Exports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel exports in December 2024 totaled 486,900 mt, up approximately 1.04% MoM from November and up about 37.58% YoY. The cumulative total for January-December 2024 was approximately 5.89 million mt, up about 28.59% YoY. By product type, December exports of plates and coils remained above 300,000 mt, up approximately 42.47% YoY. Narrow strips and profiles also saw slight increases compared to the previous month, with exports of approximately 3.67 mt and 35,200 mt, respectively, while finished products experienced a significant decline, down approximately 50.08% MoM from November. Overall, the overseas market in December was influenced by expectations of tariff increases on steel and other products by Trump, leading to an early release of future demand. In the short term, this boosted consumption of Chinese stainless steel, especially unprocessed coils. By country, exports to Japan, India, the US, Europe, Malaysia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Brazil all increased to varying degrees, with the largest increase seen in Russia, up approximately 5,500 mt (14.22% MoM). However, exports to some regions, such as South Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, Thailand, and Brazil, showed a declining trend. The total export volume in January is expected to decrease.

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