US Dollar Index Pulls Back, Crude Oil Continues to Rise; Copper Prices Expected to Be Supported Today [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM, January 14: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,124.5/mt, initially reaching a high of $9,131.5/mt before fluctuating downward, hitting an intraday low of $9,063.5/mt. It then rebounded and maintained slight fluctuations towards the end of the session, finally closing at $9,094/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 276,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract opened at 75,510 yuan/mt, initially declining to a low of 75,140 yuan/mt before climbing to an intraday high of 75,520 yuan/mt. Towards the end of the session, the center of fluctuations shifted downward, and it ultimately closed at 75,320 yuan/mt, down 0.13%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 144,000 lots. Macro side, a New York Fed survey showed one-year inflation expectations at 3%, while traders priced in a less than 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. The US dollar index pulled back significantly, and crude oil prices surged consecutively, providing support to copper prices. Fundamentally, some suppliers transferred goods to Guangdong over the weekend, while destocking continued in Shanghai and Jiangsu, leading to tighter supply in east China. The trading center for copper cathode rose slightly compared to last Friday, but consumption remains limited as copper prices stay high, and pre-holiday restocking demand has yet to emerge. In summary, with the US dollar index pulling back from highs and crude oil prices continuing to rise, copper prices are expected to receive some support today.