Polysilicon and Silicon Wafer Prices Rise Together: Will Market Sentiment Continue to Improve Before the Holiday? [SMM Analysis]

SMM, January 7: On the morning of January 6, domestic silicon wafer enterprises significantly raised their quotes again. Among them, some top-tier enterprises quoted N183 at 1.18 yuan/piece, 210RN at 1.35 yuan/piece, and 210N at 1.55 yuan/piece. In the polysilicon sector, other enterprises followed the price increase to 45 yuan/kg.

First, regarding silicon wafers, the overall supply and demand fundamentals still provide support. Domestic silicon wafer production in January is expected to reach approximately 45.96 GW, up MoM from December. However, compared to battery production of 46.4 GW, it remains slightly insufficient. Moreover, current silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively low level, and shipments of various sizes of silicon wafers remain tight, which has bolstered the confidence of silicon wafer enterprises to stand firm on quotes. Following the price increase by a certain top-tier enterprise in this round, 3-4 other top-tier enterprises subsequently followed suit.

For polysilicon, the continuous price increase of silicon wafers has, to some extent, strengthened the confidence of polysilicon enterprises to stand firm on quotes. Meanwhile, unexpected production cuts at a certain base in Xinjiang are expected to reduce domestic total production to below 90,000 mt. This has somewhat alleviated the supply pressure on polysilicon enterprises. Coupled with pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling, polysilicon inventory has also decreased by approximately 22%. It is understood that following last week's quote of around 45 yuan/kg by a certain top-tier enterprise, several other enterprises have followed suit in recent days. Yesterday, some polysilicon enterprises held a meeting in Beijing to discuss self-discipline for the healthy development of the industry in 2025, further drawing market attention.

Recently, the consecutive price increases of polysilicon and silicon wafers, combined with improved supply and demand conditions and the convening of self-discipline meetings among enterprises, have indeed boosted market sentiment to some extent. However, it should be noted that the current high quotes are mostly nominal, with very limited actual transactions. Real transactions remain extremely limited under the dual influence of "a recently concluded round of procurement" and "a wait-and-see sentiment towards prices." Some top-tier enterprises are still fulfilling historical prices for orders placed in early December, and the realization of a new round of real market transactions may still require further observation.

》View the SMM PV Industry Chain Database