Operating Rates of Refined Tin Smelting Enterprises Continue to Decline, Tightening Inventory Provides Strong Support for SHFE Tin [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary for 2024 January 6 Last week, the tin market exhibited overall fluctuations and uncertainty, with SHFE tin prices experiencing significant volatility amid mixed bullish and bearish factors. In the international market, tin price movements, domestic supply and demand conditions, and macroeconomic data collectively influenced market trends. Specifically, SHFE tin prices fluctuated rangebound last week, with mediocre spot market transactions. After the New Year, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract initially rose upon opening but faced selling pressure and pulled back, ultimately closing lower than the previous trading day. Supply side, refined tin production in

December decreased by 4.41%. With the Chinese New Year approaching, production is expected to continue declining. The operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces slightly dropped to 63.04%, while processing fees continued to decline, indicating increasing pressure on raw material supply. Demand side, the recovery expectations in the new energy and electronics industries remain optimistic, particularly with growing demand for tin in the EV and renewable energy sectors, which is expected to support tin prices in the medium and long term. However, in the short term, factors such as low inventory levels and policy changes have led to cautious market sentiment. Given the recent weakening of technical indicators for SHFE tin prices, upward momentum appears insufficient in the near term. Nevertheless, the gradual tightening of the spot market will provide some support. In the coming period, investors should closely monitor global economic data, domestic economic policies, and changes in industry demand to better grasp the trends in SHFE tin prices while guarding against potential risks.