SHFE/LME Price Ratio Stable, Low Trading Volume Amid Year-End Inventory Clearance

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Dec 13, 2024 17:04
This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio fluctuated relatively small, with most traders busy negotiating long-term contracts, resulting in low market participation. Only sporadic factory purchases were made, and the overall trading volume in the US dollar copper market was low. As the year-end approaches, traders have a need to clear their inventories. Since last week, some traders have started to offload their month-end arrivals at low prices, and this clearance sale has continued this week, with B/L transaction prices continuing to decline. In terms of warehouse warrants, there were numerous transactions in the previous weeks, but this week the market demand has decreased, and suppliers have almost no stock left, making transactions scarce.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ, ์ƒํ•˜์ด ์ง€์—ญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ยท์•„์—ฐ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ฐฝ๊ณ  ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์กฐ์ • ์Šน์ธ
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๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ, ์ƒํ•˜์ด ์ง€์—ญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ยท์•„์—ฐ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ฐฝ๊ณ  ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์กฐ์ • ์Šน์ธ
์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ, ์ƒํ•˜์ด ์ง€์—ญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ยท์•„์—ฐ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ฐฝ๊ณ  ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์กฐ์ • ์Šน์ธ
9์›” 2์ผ, ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE)๋Š” ์ƒํ•˜์ด ์œ„์ฐฝ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์•„์—ฐ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ง€์ • ์ฐฝ๊ณ  ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์กฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์Šน์ธํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒํ•˜์ด์‹œ ๊ถํ—ˆ์‹ ๋ฃจ 3501ํ˜ธ ์ €์žฅ์†Œ์—์„œ ํ•ด๋‹น ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ €์žฅ ์ž๊ฒฉ์„ ์ทจ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ , ์Šน์ธ๋œ ์•„์—ฐ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ฐฝ๊ณ  ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์€ 2๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ง€๋œ๋‹ค. ์ƒํ•˜์ด์‹œ ๋ฏผํ•ญ๊ตฌ ์ง€์ดจ๋ฃจ 2222ํ˜ธ ์ €์žฅ์†Œ์—์„œ๋Š” ์•„์—ฐ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ €์žฅ ์ž๊ฒฉ์ด ์ทจ์†Œ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์Šน์ธ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 4๋งŒ 5์ฒœ ํ†ค, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ 5์ฒœ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์กฐ์ •๋œ๋‹ค.
3๋ถ„ ์ „
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6๋ถ„ ์ „
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๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์—˜๋„๋ผ๋„, ๋งฅํ‚ฌ๋ฒ ๋‚˜ ๋ฒ ์ด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ƒ์—… ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ž„๋ฐ•์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ œ๋ถ„์†Œ 43% ์ฆ์„ค ๊ฒ€ํ† 
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์—˜๋„๋ผ๋„ ๊ณจ๋“œ๋Š” ์„œ์Šค์บ์ฒ˜์›์ฃผ ๋งฅํ‚ฌ๋ฒ ๋‚˜ ๋ฒ ์ด ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ-์•„์—ฐ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ํ•˜๋ฃจ 4,900ํ†ค์—์„œ ์•ฝ 7,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ 43% ํ™•์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์ด๋ฉฐ, ์€-๋‚ฉ ํšŒ์ˆ˜ ๊ณต์ • ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ฒ€ํ† ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์ƒ์—… ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ฆ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ด‘์„์ด 40๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ด์ƒ ํ™•๋ณด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด ํƒ€๋‹น์„ฑ ๊ณ„ํš์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•ฝ 4,100๋งŒ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ(18.6kt)์— ๋‹ฌํ•  ์ „๋ง์ด๋‹ค.
6๋ถ„ ์ „
์›์•ค์›, ์‹ ๊ทœ ํ•„๋ฆฌํ•€ ๊ธˆ์† ํšŒ์ˆ˜ ๋ผ์ธ์šฉ ์›๋ฃŒ 2,000ํ†ค ์ด์ƒ ํ™•๋ณด
7๋ถ„ ์ „
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๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์›์•ค์›, ์‹ ๊ทœ ํ•„๋ฆฌํ•€ ๊ธˆ์† ํšŒ์ˆ˜ ๋ผ์ธ์šฉ ์›๋ฃŒ 2,000ํ†ค ์ด์ƒ ํ™•๋ณด
์›์•ค์›, ์‹ ๊ทœ ํ•„๋ฆฌํ•€ ๊ธˆ์† ํšŒ์ˆ˜ ๋ผ์ธ์šฉ ์›๋ฃŒ 2,000ํ†ค ์ด์ƒ ํ™•๋ณด
์›์•ค์› ๊ทธ๋ฆฐ ํ…Œํฌ๋†€๋กœ์ง€์Šค๋Š” ํ•„๋ฆฌํ•€์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ธˆ์† ํšŒ์ˆ˜ ๋ผ์ธ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ•จ์œ , ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๋ฐ ์ „์ž ์Šฌ๋Ÿฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ 2,000ํ†ค ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์›๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์žฅ๋น„ ์„ค์น˜๊ฐ€ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ด๋ฉฐ 2026๋…„ ๋ง ์ด์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์‹œ์„ค์€ ์‚ฐ์—… ๋ฐ ์ „์ž ํ๊ธฐ๋ฌผ์—์„œ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ, ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ, ๊ธˆ, ์€์„ ํšŒ์ˆ˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ณตํ•ฉ 2์ฐจ ๊ธˆ์† ์›๋ฃŒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํ˜„์ง€ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
7๋ถ„ ์ „
This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio fluctuated relatively small, with - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)