SMM Analysis On China October SiMn Alloy Production And November Forecast

According to SMM data, China's total SiMn alloy production in October 2024 increased by approximately 4% MoM but decreased by over 30% YoY. From January to October 2024, China's cumulative SiMn alloy production decreased by over 10% YoY. The main reason for the production increase in October is the resumption of production in both northern and southern SiMn alloy plants. Specifically, Inner Mongolia maintained a high operating rate, with some reductions due to maintenance having been restored. Additionally, due to the alleviation of production pressure, the overall production of SiMn alloy plants in Inner Mongolia saw a slight increase. Stimulated by favourable macro news, SiMn alloy plants in regions such as Guangxi and Guizhou also resumed production. Overall, the total national SiMn alloy production in October showed an increase.

Entering November, SiMn alloy plants in cost-advantaged regions like Inner Mongolia are expected to maintain their operating rates. However, SiMn plants in Yunnan and other regions are entering the rainy season, leading to rising electricity prices and significant production pressure, with plans for production cuts or suspensions. Additionally, the firm manganese ore prices at southern ports drive up costs, making a significant increase in the operating rate of SiMn alloy plants unlikely. Therefore, the overall SiMn alloy production in November is expected to decrease.