Expectations for "Trump trade" will make it difficult for SHFE tin prices to form a unilateral trend (SMM tin morning comment Nov 11)

Last week, the US election results were announced, confirming Trump's election as the President of the United States. Previously, as Trump led in the polls, the market had anticipated the "Trump trade," which involves potential policy changes affecting the chip and new energy industries, thereby impacting the long-term demand for tin. This expectation has influenced the market trend of tin prices to some extent. Before the US election, SHFE tin prices had already been affected by various factors, including pessimistic macro expectations, changes in US manufacturing PMI and labour market data, as well as the fundamental situation of the tin market itself. These factors collectively led to a significant decline in tin prices over a period of time. During the election, market uncertainty increased, and most companies adopted a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting the election results. As a result, spot market transactions were relatively sluggish, and tin prices showed a fluctuating trend. After Trump's election, the market began to focus on the overall impact of the "Trump trade" on the commodity market. Due to the potential impact of Trump's policy orientation on the long-term demand for tin, market expectations changed, leading to price fluctuations. However, the specific impact still needs further observation of the actual policy direction after the Trump administration takes office. Considering the domestic supply and demand situation, we expect SHFE tin prices to continue to maintain a fluctuating trend. On one hand, with the expectation of marginal improvement in domestic demand, the support for tin prices has strengthened; on the other hand, due to market uncertainty about future inflation trends and global economic recovery, both bulls and bears are cautious, making it difficult for prices to form a unilateral trend.