SMM Analysis On China September EMM Production And October Forecast

According to SMM data, in September 2024, China's EMM production increased by 0.9% MoM and 24% YoY, with a cumulative growth of 17% YoY. The production increase in September was mainly due to higher operating rates at smelters in Guizhou and Guangxi. On one hand, after the end of summer in September, electricity costs decreased, reducing costs; on the other hand, downstream demand is expected to recover in October, combined with increased demand after the end of overseas summer holidays, leading to an overall increase in orders. Meanwhile, production of EMM plants in other regions remained at August levels, resulting in a recovery in overall EMM production in September. Entering October, after the alliance meeting and favorable policies, EMM prices rose overall. The reduction in downstream steel production was less than expected, with some steel production even increasing compared to September. This expanded profit margins and demand for EMM, with EMM producers maintaining overall operating levels. However, some EMM plants in Guizhou plan to halt production in October, so production is expected to decline.