[SMM Analysis] Raw Material Supply Shortage and Maintenance Lead to Significant Decline in Domestic Tin Ingot Production in September

According to in-depth survey data from SMM, the production of refined tin in China saw a significant decline in September 2024 compared to the previous month. In Yunnan, the continuous decline in the import volume of Burmese tin ore has started to have a substantial impact on the smelting process due to tight supply at the mining end. Coupled with some companies undergoing annual maintenance shutdowns, this led to a significant drop in tin ingot production in September. SMM survey results indicate that the metal content of tin ore imported from the Wa State region of Myanmar remained at relatively low levels in September, highlighting the raw material shortage issue for smelters in Yunnan. Many smelters and beneficiation plants are facing production cuts due to insufficient raw materials. Particularly in Gejiu, the production of several smelters and beneficiation plants has been severely affected, with some companies forced to use low-grade ore or tailings for production, resulting in decreased recovery rates and increased production costs. Similarly, the Jiangxi region is also noteworthy. Here, some smelting enterprises are facing severe challenges in raw material supply, making it difficult for them to maintain current production levels, leading to a certain degree of production decline. Additionally, some companies have slightly reduced production due to equipment maintenance. In Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, the overall production of some smelting enterprises remains stable, but considering the raw material supply issues, future production growth is unlikely. Meanwhile, smelting enterprises in Anhui and other regions report that the recent procurement of tin concentrate and scrap has been challenging, with current production declining month by month. Looking ahead, we predict the following for refined tin production in various regions in October: Due to the difficulty in effectively replenishing raw material inventories before the lifting of restrictions on Myanmar Wa State tin ore, and with the raw material inventories of beneficiation plants and smelters nearly depleted, national tin ingot production in October is expected to decline, and this situation may persist until the end of the year.