SMM Analysis: August Tin Prices Rise Amid Fed Rate Cut Hopes; Can Momentum Continue in September?

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Sep 4, 2024 19:01
[SMM Monthly Analysis: Tin Prices End August on a Positive Note, Macroeconomic Headwinds Loom - Can the Tin Market Continue Its Upward Trajectory in September?] A series of data released in August by the United States eased market concerns about an economic recession in the country. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated directly at the Jackson Hole Symposium of Central Bank Governors: "The time for policy adjustments has arrived. The direction of policy is clear, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, changes in outlooks, and the balance of risks." This also prompted the market to begin trading again on the expectations of a Fed rate cut. Coupled with the gradual tightening of tin supply supporting tin prices, macroeconomic and fundamental factors resonated, causing tin prices to rise in August...

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ: 8์›” ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ์–‘๋Œ€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ์˜ ์ฃผ์„๊ดด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด 3,610mt]
40๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ: 8์›” ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ์–‘๋Œ€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ์˜ ์ฃผ์„๊ดด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด 3,610mt]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ: 8์›” ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ์–‘๋Œ€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ์˜ ์ฃผ์„๊ดด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด 3,610mt]
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ: 8์›” ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ์–‘๋Œ€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ์˜ ์ฃผ์„๊ดด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด 3,610mt]
2026๋…„ 8์›” ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ JFX ๋ฐ ICDX ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ์˜ ์ฃผ์„ ์ž‰๊ณณ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ด 3,610ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 3.00%, ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 30.09% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ 1~8์›” ๋‘ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ์˜ ๋ˆ„์  ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰์€ 25,830ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 18.17% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
40๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ: ์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์€ยท์ฃผ์„: ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์•ˆ์ „์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ƒํ™ฉ ๋ฐ ์„ ๊ด‘ยท๊ด‘๋ฏธ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ ๊ณต๊ณ ]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ: ์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์€ยท์ฃผ์„: ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์•ˆ์ „์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ƒํ™ฉ ๋ฐ ์„ ๊ด‘ยท๊ด‘๋ฏธ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ ๊ณต๊ณ ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ: ์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์€ยท์ฃผ์„: ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์•ˆ์ „์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ƒํ™ฉ ๋ฐ ์„ ๊ด‘ยท๊ด‘๋ฏธ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ ๊ณต๊ณ ]
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ: ์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์€ยท์ฃผ์„: ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์•ˆ์ „์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ƒํ™ฉ ๋ฐ ์„ ๊ด‘ยท๊ด‘๋ฏธ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ ๊ณต๊ณ ]
I. ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐœ์š” 2026๋…„ 7์›” 26์ผ 15:30๊ฒฝ, ๋‚ด๋ชฝ๊ณจ ์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์€ยท์ฃผ์„ ๊ด‘์—… ์œ ํ•œํšŒ์‚ฌ(์ดํ•˜ โ€œํšŒ์‚ฌโ€)์˜ 100% ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ์ธ ์‹œ์šฐ์ฃผ๋ฌด์นœ๊ธฐ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ์œ ํ•œํšŒ์‚ฌ(์ดํ•˜ โ€œ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—…โ€) ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—์„œ ์ง€ํ•˜ โ…ข๊ตฌ์—ญ 750 ์„œ๋ธŒ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ ์„œ์ธก ์ฃผ์šด๋ฐ˜๋กœ 19-1๊ณผ 25-1 ์‚ฌ์ด ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐยท์‹œ๊ณต ๊ณผ์ • ์ค‘ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์—ฌ 1๋ช…์ด ์‚ฌ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ถ€์ƒ์ž๋Š” ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ๋ฐœ์ƒ ํ›„ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—…์€ ์‹œ์šฐ์ฃผ๋ฌด์นœ๊ธฐ ์‘๊ธ‰๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ตญ(์ดํ•˜ โ€œ์‹œ์šฐ๊ธฐ ์‘๊ธ‰๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ตญโ€)์ด ๋ฐœํ–‰ํ•œ ํ˜„์žฅ ์กฐ์น˜ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„œ๋ฅผ ์ ‘์ˆ˜ํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹œ์šฐ๊ธฐ ์‘๊ธ‰๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ตญ์˜ ์š”๊ตฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—…์˜ ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ตฌ์—ญ๊ณผ ์„ ๊ด‘ ํ…Œ์ผ๋ง ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ์ˆœ์ฐจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋™์ด ์ค‘๋‹จ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. II. ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ƒํ™ฉ ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ๋ฐœ์ƒ ํ›„ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—…์€ ์•ˆ์ „์ƒ์‚ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ „๋ฉด์ ์ด๊ณ  ์‹ฌ์ธต์ ์ธ ์ž์ฒด ์ ๊ฒ€์„ ์‹ค์‹œํ•˜๊ณ , ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ ๋ฐ ๊ฐ์ข… ์‹œ์ • ์กฐ์น˜๋ฅผ ์—„๊ฒฉํžˆ ์ดํ–‰ํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ตœ๊ทผ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—…์€ ์‹œ์šฐ๊ธฐ ์‘๊ธ‰๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ตญ์ด ๋ฐœํ–‰ํ•œ ใ€Œ์‹œ์šฐ์ฃผ๋ฌด์นœ๊ธฐ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ์œ ํ•œํšŒ์‚ฌ ์„ ๊ด‘ ํ…Œ์ผ๋ง ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ ์Šน์ธ ํ†ต์ง€ใ€๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜๋ นํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—…์˜ ์„ ๊ด‘ ํ…Œ์ผ๋ง ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ์Šน์ธ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ์„ ๊ด‘์žฅ์€ 2026๋…„ 9์›” 3์ผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์žฌ๊ฐœํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ตฌ์—ญ์€ ๊ฐ์ข… ์‹œ์ • ์ž‘์—…์„ ์ „๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ํ•œ ์กฐ์†ํžˆ ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ตฌ์—ญ์˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ํ–ฅํ›„ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๊ด€๋ จ ๊ทœ์ •์— ์˜๊ฑฐํ•˜์—ฌ ์ ์‹œ์— ์ •๋ณด๊ณต์‹œ ์˜๋ฌด๋ฅผ ์ดํ–‰ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ, ํˆฌ์ž์ž๊ป˜์„œ๋Š” ํˆฌ์ž ์œ„ํ—˜์— ์œ ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์•ผ๊ฐ„ LME ์ฃผ์„ 1.07% ํ•˜๋ฝ, SHFE ์ฃผ์„ 0.70% ํ•˜๋ฝ; ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„๊ณผ ๊ฐ•๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์••๋ฐ• [SMM ์ฃผ์„ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋‰ด์Šค]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์•ผ๊ฐ„ LME ์ฃผ์„ 1.07% ํ•˜๋ฝ, SHFE ์ฃผ์„ 0.70% ํ•˜๋ฝ; ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„๊ณผ ๊ฐ•๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์••๋ฐ• [SMM ์ฃผ์„ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋‰ด์Šค]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์•ผ๊ฐ„ LME ์ฃผ์„ 1.07% ํ•˜๋ฝ, SHFE ์ฃผ์„ 0.70% ํ•˜๋ฝ; ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„๊ณผ ๊ฐ•๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์••๋ฐ• [SMM ์ฃผ์„ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋‰ด์Šค]
์•ผ๊ฐ„ LME ์ฃผ์„ 1.07% ํ•˜๋ฝ, SHFE ์ฃผ์„ 0.70% ํ•˜๋ฝ; ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„๊ณผ ๊ฐ•๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์••๋ฐ• [SMM ์ฃผ์„ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋‰ด์Šค]
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ์กฐ๊ฐ„ ๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘: ๊ฐ„๋ฐค LME ์ฃผ์„ 1.07% ํ•˜๋ฝ, SHFE ์ฃผ์„ 0.70% ํ•˜๋ฝ; ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„๊ณผ ๊ฐ•๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์••๋ฐ•]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM Monthly Analysis: Tin Prices End August on a Positive Note, Macro - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)