China's tin ore imports continued to decline in May, with a reduction in tin ore imports from African countries [SMM Analysis]

In May, China's tin ore imports amounted to 8,400 mt, down 18.28% MoM and 54.12% YoY. The metal content was 3,782 mt, a decrease of 996 mt compared to April. The imports in January-May totalled 79,100 mt, down 14.49% YoY. In May, China's tin ingot imports were 637 mt, down 13.22% MoM and 82.72% YoY. The tin ingot imports in January-May totalled 7,263 mt, down 28.55% YoY.

In May, domestic tin ore imports showed a continuous downward trend, mainly due to a significant reduction in imports from Myanmar and Africa. Although tin ore imports from other countries held stable and those from Australia even increased, the overall imports were still greatly affected. Specifically, tin ore imports from Myanmar in May were 3,200 mt (equivalent to 977 mt in metal content), showing a continuous decline compared to April. The authorities of Wa State, Myanmar have not yet given a clear indication of when local tin mines can resume production. Although there have been recent announcements agreeing to the transportation of tin powder from beneficiation plants, future tin ore exports to China are likely to continue to decrease as tin powder inventories gradually deplete. Meanwhile, tin ore imports from African countries such as Nigeria and The Democratic Republic of the Congo also saw a sharp drop, leading to a decline in total tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar. Imports from Africa are expected to recover in the future.

Since the end of 2023, with the gradual closure of the tin import profit window and the delay in the approval of tin export quotas due to the Indonesian presidential election at the beginning of 2024, China's tin ingot imports have shown a significant decline. In May, China's tin ingot imports further decreased to 637 mt, with 175 mt imported from Indonesia. Although the tin import profit window is expected to reopen soon, which may lead some imported tin to enter the domestic market, the overall imports remain at a low level. Meanwhile, China's tin exports were 1,500 mt in May, down 21.96% MoM but up 26.90% YoY. In January-May, the exports reached 6,921 mt, up 26.55% YoY. Although tin exports increased compared to previous periods, future tin exports are expected to continue to decline, considering the recent closure of the export window.