Overnight, the US Senate approved a ban on Russian oil and gas imports, and the European Union also supported increased sanctions against Russia and imposed a coal embargo. The sanctions have underpinned energy commodity prices, and rising inflation expectations have pushed Treasury yields back from their highs. The central bank announced that it would buy gold at negotiated prices from April 8, boosting precious metals prices. COMEX gold futures began to strengthen and expand in the middle of the European trading. After rising above US $1940, the gold futures closed slightly lower at US $1934.7 / oz, up 0.33% / oz.
[outlook for the future] the current conflicts between Europe, the United States and Russia will have a long-term impact. After the panic in the financial markets is basically digested, risk appetite improves and returns to fundamental expectations. Under the influence of continued interest rate increases by central banks in Europe and the United States to curb inflation, higher real interest rates will restrain precious metal prices, and the market will enter a period of shock consolidation in the short term. In the medium to long term, geopolitical conflicts continue to support inflation, high prices continue to suppress demand, and the global economy faces the risk of recession under the tight monetary policy of central banks, which may promote a new upward cycle of gold. long-term allocation of funds can choose to enter at a bargain.
[technical side] after the upfront upsurge of gold fell back, the short-term fluctuations of the intersecting averages of each cycle narrowed and fell into a shock trend, and the price fell below the resistance around the 20-day moving average of $1955. Silver has experienced large fluctuations in the previous period, and the current long-short-term moving average is in a narrow range between $24 and $25.50.
[capital side] in the case of frequent risk events, the substantial increase in gold ETF holdings since the beginning of this year indicates that the market demand for risk aversion has increased, and the current long-term allocation of funds continues to inflow, while the net excess positions of institutions have fallen in the short term, but the capital side support market remains resilient.
[strategy recommendation] short-term maintenance of high selling and low suction operation, long-term gold can be bargain-seeking configuration.
