The first Securities Nonferrous Industry Weekly report: the continuous fermentation of the energy crisis in Europe supports the accelerated rise in aluminum, lithium and cobalt prices.

Core point of view

The European energy crisis continues to ferment electrolytic aluminum prices remain firm, the European energy crisis continues to ferment, which is expected to lead to the shutdown of electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 800000 tons. At present, the European energy crisis is still difficult to solve in the first quarter. Capacity shutdown is expected to support electrolytic aluminum prices, while domestic aluminum ingot inventory remains low, and the pace of removing the warehouse remains unchanged. This week, LME copper fell-0.48 per cent to US $9674 per tonne; LME aluminum rose 4.10 per cent to US $2922.5 per tonne; LME lead fell-0.41 per cent to US $2294.5 per tonne; LME zinc rose 0.13 per cent to US $3538.5 per tonne; LME tin rose 2.93 per cent to US $40000 per tonne; and LME nickel rose 0.06 per cent to US $20770 per tonne. It is recommended to pay attention to Chinalco and Shenhuo shares.

The shortage of lithium and cobalt supply does not change the price acceleration this week.

At the end of the year, some lithium carbonate producers stopped production and maintenance, superimposed downstream scheduling accelerated pace, lithium carbonate prices accelerated this week. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 7.84% to close at 275000 yuan / ton. Battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 6.43% to close at 298000 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ganfeng Lithium Industry and Rongjie shares. The epidemic in South Africa has had a continuing impact on domestic cobalt supply. This week, electrolytic cobalt rose slightly by 0.91% to close at 501500 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Huayou Cobalt Industry and Hanrui Cobalt Industry.

Copper prices have fallen slightly this week, real estate prices have picked up or there may be some support for copper prices.

Copper fell-0.86% to 69340 yuan / ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week, while aluminum rose 3.48% to 21000 yuan / ton. The real estate industry has picked up recently, and the superimposed stable growth policy is expected to accelerate the expansion of infrastructure investment or support the prices of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum. Recommended attention: Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous and so on.

Once again, the Federal Reserve is hawkish about the fall in precious metal prices.

The minutes of the FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve this week showed that the Fed may tighten faster than expected. Affected by the news, spot gold in London fell-1.82% to close at $1795.92 / oz this week, while the dollar index fell-0.24% to 95.74%. COMEX gold fell-1.76% to close at $1797.40 / oz this week, while COMEX silver fell-4.14% to close at $22.41 / oz. We believe that the game between the pace of Taper and the duration of high inflation is a key factor in the trend of gold prices throughout the year, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range throughout the year.

Risk hint: the Fed's policy changes more than expected, and the global economic recovery is less than expected.