The supply gap of lithium hexafluorophosphate by big players will continue.

Perhaps there is no lithium material that can make battery giants so crazy.

BYD has gone crazy with the purchase of lithium hexafluorophosphate. On November 15, Duofuoduo announced that the company signed an agreement with Shenzhen BYD supply chain Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as BYD supply chain Company) from January 2022 to December 2025. BYD supply chain company purchases lithium hexafluorophosphate products with a total quantity of no less than 56050 tons.

Speaking of which, the purchase volume is really scary.

What is the concept of 56050 tons? According to industry estimates, the production of 1GWh lithium iron phosphate battery requires about 125t lithium hexafluorophosphate, so the battery capacity of the 56050 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate purchased by BYD is estimated to be about 448GWh. You know, according to industry forecasts, the global power battery industry will enter the TWh era by 2025, and BYD alone will purchase "nearly half TWh" of hexafluorine consumption.

Moreover, this is not the first time BYD has purchased lithium hexafluorophosphate from polyfluorocarbons. In July this year, BYD signed a procurement contract with Dofurdo for no less than 6460 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. In addition to purchasing from Dofudo, in July this year, BYD signed a procurement agreement with Jiujiujiu Technology, a holding subsidiary of Yan'an Bikang Company. the latter promised to supply not less than 1150 tons to BYD between July and December 2021, no less than 3360 tons in 2022 and no less than 3360 tons in 2023.

In addition, BYD also signed an agreement with Jiangsu Xintai material Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Skyline, on the long-term supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate. According to the agreement, Xintai Materials will supply not less than 3500 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate to BYD from July 2021 to December 2022 and 3600,7800 tons in 2023.

Combined with the order in July this year, BYD purchased as much as 25630 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, so the corresponding battery capacity is expected to be about 205GWh. Coupled with the 56050 tons purchased from Dofuoduo now, BYD has purchased 81680 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the second half of this year, and the corresponding battery capacity is about 653GWh. This shows how crazy BYD is.

In fact, BYD is not the only one crazy about hexafluorophosphate. "Ning Wang" has not been idle. As early as May this year, Ningde Times signed an agreement with Ningde Kaixin, a wholly owned subsidiary of Tianci Materials, that by June 30, 2022, Ningde Kaixin will supply Ningde Times with a corresponding quantity of electrolyte products with an estimated use of 15000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the corresponding battery capacity is also 100GWh.

On November 14, Yongtai Technology announced that Ningde Times had granted a 25% stake in Yongtai High-tech, a subsidiary of Ningde Times. In August this year, Ningde era signed an agreement with Yongtai Technology. Ningde Times will purchase lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium difluorosulfonimide (LIFSI) and vinyl carbonate (VC) products from Yongtai Technology for a supply period of up to 5 years.

In addition to the era of BYD and Ningde, according to the announcement issued by Polyfluorodo in July this year, Funeng Technology and EnchemCo.Ltd. The procurement contracts of not less than 1700 tons and 1800 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate products were signed with polyfluorodo respectively. On November 10th, EnchemCo.,Ltd signed an agreement with Henan Nonferrous, a subsidiary of Duofuoduo, that Henan Nonferrous will supply it with lithium hexafluorophosphate products of no less than 1 billion yuan within three years.

The price of hexafluorine will remain high.

Behind the madness of the battery giants is the continued popularity of the market for new energy vehicles and power batteries.

In September this year, domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 357000, an increase of 148.4% over the same period last year. From January to September, sales were 2.157 million, an increase of 185.3% over the same period last year; another all-time high. According to data from the Power Battery Application Branch, the installed capacity of power batteries in the Chinese market in September was about 15.86GWH, an increase of 141.2% over the same period last year; from January to September this year, the installed capacity was about 95.26GWH, an increase of 178.8% over the same period last year.

Lithium hexafluorophosphate is the most widely used lithium electrolyte at present, and it is also the main component in the production of lithium-ion battery electrolyte, accounting for about 35% to 40% of the total cost of the electrolyte. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continues to soar driven by strong demand downstream. In November 2020, Lithium hexafluorophosphate was quoted for about 95000 yuan per ton. now the quotation for lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached about 600000 yuan per ton, an increase of more than 500%, which has far exceeded the peak price of 400000 yuan / ton in 2015.

Some industry analysts believe that recently, BYD and other downstream battery manufacturers sent letters to adjust battery prices in November, and the price of hexafluorophosphoric acid may further rise in the short term, and the price of upstream raw materials superimposed with lithium hexafluorophosphate is tight and high, and it is difficult to see the price ceiling for the time being. Tension is expected to persist in the first half of 2022 and will not be alleviated to some extent until the second half of the year.

The supply gap will continue.

Industry data show that the current inventory of lithium hexafluorophosphate is the lowest in recent years, and the leading capacity of the main lithium hexafluorophosphate is relatively limited. Among them, Tianzhi material has liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity of 30, 000 tons / year, solid lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity of 2000 tons / year; polyfluorine more existing production capacity of 10, 000 tons / year; Tianji shares production capacity of 8160 tons / year; Yongtai science and technology production capacity of 2000 tons / year, currently expanding 6000 tons capacity; Yanan Bikang subsidiary 99 technology production capacity of 6400 tons / year.

In addition, Hongyuan Pharmaceutical's shareholding subsidiary has a production capacity of 4000 tons per year; Shanshan and Juhua Joint Venture has a production capacity of 2000 tons per year; and Shi Da Shenghua's holding subsidiary, Shenghua New Energy, has a production capacity of 2000 tons per year.

At present, the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the industry has been basically carved up by the giants. Although most of the major manufacturers continue to be full production, supply still falls short of demand. According to industry estimates, the supply gap of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 17000 tons in 2022, 35000 tons in 2023 and more than 60, 000 tons in 2024.

In order to make up for the market gap, manufacturers are actively expanding production. In July this year, Duofuoduo announced plans to invest 5.15 billion yuan to build projects with an annual production capacity of 100000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, 40, 000 tons of lithium difluorosulfonimide (LiFSI) and 10, 000 tons of lithium difluorophosphate. The first Securities Research report pointed out that according to the current announced estimates, the production capacity of polyfluorodo is expected to reach 45000 tons by the end of 2022, an increase of 200% compared with the end of 2021, and the annual effective capacity is expected to reach 25000 tons, nearly doubling the same period last year.

It is understood that as the main source of lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity of Yongtai Technology, Yongtai Gaoxin currently has an annual production capacity of 2000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and its total capacity is expected to reach 8000 tons by the end of 2021. In June this year, Yongtaigao plans to invest 794 million yuan to build a project with an annual output of 20, 000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. In October, Yongtai Science and Technology adjusted the above project to an "industrialization project with an annual output of 134000 tons of liquid lithium salt".

In addition, on June 17, Tianci announced that the company intends to invest in the construction of a project with an annual production capacity of 150000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. On June 23, Tianji Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to invest 600 million yuan to build a project with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. Recently, Shida Shenghua announced that it will build a 100000 ton / year liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate project; Shenzhen Xinxing plans to invest 700 million yuan to build an annual production capacity of 15000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate project.

It is worth noting that although many manufacturers are expanding lithium hexafluorophosphate projects on a large scale, industry analysts point out that the production process of lithium hexafluorophosphate is more difficult, and environmental protection approval requirements are strict. From a historical point of view, lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity construction time is as long as 1.5 years-2 years, the mismatch between supply and demand is difficult to solve through short-term production capacity.