It is reported that Thursday (September 2), the U. S. market intraday, the overall market risk sentiment inclined to risk-taking. For now, investors are waiting for Friday's August non-farm payrolls report, hoping to find evidence that the Fed is scaling back its bond purchases. The dollar index continued its decline and is still trading near a three-week low. Spot gold hovered around $1807 and fell slightly during the day.
In another sign of a gradual improvement in the labor market from the novel coronavirus epidemic, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 340000 in the week on Aug. 28, the lowest level since March 14, 2020, according to the latest report released by the Labor Department on Thursday. the number had been expected to be 345000, compared with a previous estimate of 353000.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to decline, mainly due to the recovery of the economy and increased demand for workers. However, the figure is still higher than it was before the outbreak, and the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus mutated virus has also injected uncertainty into the economic outlook and could lead to the risk of layoffs in the future. Recently, the surge in novel coronavirus cases in the United States has begun to affect consumption.
On Friday, the Labor Department will release its monthly jobs report, which will show the performance of the U. S. labor market in September. Economists expect the US to create 720000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate to fall from 5.4 per cent to 5.2 per cent.
The market's median forecast shows that non-farm payrolls are expected to rise sharply by 750000, but estimates range from 375000 to 1.02 million, while the ADP report prompted speculation that the risks were downside.
However, weak data could be good for risky assets, as it would ease the pressure on the Fed to scale back its bond purchases ahead of time.
"if the figure is closer to 400000 rather than 800000, it actually means that the Fed's conditions for 'further substantial progress' in the labour market will take longer to materialize, delaying the decision to scale back bond purchases from September to November," said Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at NAB.
"the bad news from the labour market is good news for risky assets, as drinking glasses will continue to be filled for a long time."
Looking ahead, ANZ (ANZ Bank) strategists keep the short-term target price of gold at $1900 an ounce. The gold valuation model still shows that gold is undervalued. The rebound in bonds and the recent strength of the dollar have reduced investor demand for gold.
Technical analysis: FXStreet analyst Haresh Menghani wrote that it broke through the area around $1823. It could push gold towards a key barrier around $1832-$34, which, if clearly cleared, would reaffirm a bullish breakthrough and pave the way for further gains. Gold prices are likely to accelerate to the next related resistance level, the $1853-55 range.
Weekly lows of about $1800 now seem to have prevented further declines. If it continues to fall below that level, it could trigger some technical selling and pull gold back to the $1778-74 range.
If you break it, look at the support area of $1751-50. Further declines could extend to the $1730 area, or even the $1700 psychological barrier and multi-month lows around $1687-86.
