SMM7 March 13: most of the outer disk metal market was green yesterday, and Lun Copper fell on Monday as concerns about the outlook for demand in China, the largest consumer, and increased inventories reinforced negative sentiment. In addition, the dollar rose, causing a drag on base metals across the board. The LME metal market is mixed today. As of 09:40 in the morning, Lun Copper is up nearly 0.2%, Lun Aluminum is up nearly 0.4%, Lun Pb is down nearly 0.3%, Lunxi is flat, Lunni is down nearly 0.1%, and Lunxi is up nearly 0.3%. Domestically, international copper fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.3%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.7%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 1.5%, Shanghai nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 1.2%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, the New York Fed survey showed that the median one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.8% in June from 4.0% in May, the highest level since the forecast was launched in 2013, and uncertainty about future inflation outcomes rose in the short term. As soon as the news came out, the stronger dollar dragged down metals across the board, and the market is waiting for this week's US inflation data and the Fed chairman's speech in Congress to look for clues to reduce the size of bond purchases. On the spot side.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the overnight strength of the US dollar brought down the pressure on copper futures to focus on today's spot transactions.
In terms of aluminum, the current aluminum consumption shows signs of weakening to the off-season, but the inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet fully entered the stock cycle, while the inventory of aluminum bars appears the phenomenon of small accumulation. In July, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was slightly repaired, and it is expected that the inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum will first decline and then increase, or it may be bad for aluminum prices in the last ten days. Short-term domestic aluminum prices to maintain high shock market, continuous attention.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline smoothly and shippers increase their shipments.
In terms of lead, domestic lead consumption is still light, accumulation pressure is still high, high price transaction is difficult, the spot market delivery enthusiasm is not reduced, during the day still need to pay attention to the Shanghai lead below the 5-day moving average support. Lun lead stocks fell below 70,000 tons, while domestic lead ingot stocks continued to accumulate, putting greater pressure on lead prices to rise. At the same time, the supply of recycled lead increased, and because delivery was approaching, the holder delivered the goods at a high price, while the downstream waited and picked carefully, aggravating the asymmetry between supply and demand.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] the spot market for lead fell slightly overnight and waited to pick it carefully.
In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc weak operation, although the central bank cut reserve requirements to boost market sentiment, but the fundamental weak pattern has not changed, under the influence of the off-season, downstream block consumption showed a downward trend, SMM social inventory increased again, the spot market is also light, the fundamental support is weak.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] inventory inflection point approaching zinc price volatility is weak
In terms of nickel, there has been no clear bullish and bad news about nickel prices in recent days, the market shortage of nickel has continued, and the pattern of strong fundamental support has not changed. Nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range today, with the main operating range of Shanghai nickel at 138000-141000 yuan / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] stainless steel spot profits soar to expand raw materials have a tendency to continue to squeeze
In terms of black, the thread fell by nearly 1%, the hot coil by nearly 0.7%, coking coal by nearly 2.9%, coke by nearly 0.6%, and iron ore by nearly 1.6%. In terms of iron ore, from the current stage, Anhui and Gansu have issued corresponding reduction policies, and some steel mills in Shandong, Hunan and other places have carried out corresponding actions to reduce production, and the demand side of iron ore has been disturbed; but according to SMM, at present, some steel enterprises have indicated that if they strictly implement the production reduction policy, they should first reduce the proportion of scrap steel and reduce crude steel production. And, with steel prices stabilizing and rebounding, steel mill profits are expected to be repaired, and iron ore prices are still supported.
[minutes of SMM Steel Morning meeting] it is obvious that goods are dumped at high, weak and high positions.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.1% in the previous period, and international oil prices fell on Monday on fears that the spread of the variant virus would undermine the global economic recovery, but the decline was limited by tight supply of crude oil. The global economic recovery has pushed fuel demand close to pre-pandemic levels.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.1%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.6%. Comex gold futures closed lower, affected by the strength of the dollar, investors are cautiously looking forward to US inflation data, which may affect the timetable for the Fed to scale back its bond-buying program.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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