On Tuesday, July 6, local time, economists at Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) said their optimistic expectations for global growth this year were shared by more and more peers. Goldman Sachs believes the U. S. economy is unlikely to overheat and expects the Fed to announce a scaling back of its bond-buying program before December.
Goldman Sachs expects the global economy to grow 6.6% this year and 4.8% in 2022, which is close to the forecasts of other Wall Street banks since April 2020, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a report on Tuesday.
However, Hatzius wrote, "as we expected, the recent fundamental growth news has become more complicated."
On the positive side, the US labour market is accelerating, European executives are becoming optimistic, and global vaccination campaigns have reduced novel coronavirus's deaths; on the downside, Hatzius notes that US demand growth is slowing, labour shortages are dragging down output and Delta mutants are starting to spread.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that the US economy will grow by 6.8 per cent in 2021 and 4.7 per cent next year, while the euro zone will grow by 5.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively.
Hatzius said the US economy is unlikely to overheat because growth will slow as economic restart comes to an end and fiscal support weakens. He expects the Fed to announce a scaling back of its bond-buying program before December.
In addition, Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist said on the same day that he expected the S & P 500 to rise another 7 per cent in 2022 after reaching about 4300 at the end of 2021.
The s & p closed down 0.2% at 4343.54 on Tuesday.
It is unlikely that there will be an oil price war.
The breakdown of OPEC + oil production negotiations has brought uncertainty to the path of crude oil production. But Goldman maintains its view that the price of Brent crude will be around $80 a barrel this summer and forecasts a gradual increase in production in the second half of the year until the first quarter of 2022, finally ending the decline in inventories.
"while the threat of a new OPEC+ price war is small, its negative impact on prices will be weakened by global markets, which are beginning to have a shortfall of 2.5 million b / d and need to increase production by an additional 5 million b / d by the end of the year to avoid low inventories," Goldman Sachs said.
(Barclays), the UK's Barclays bank, also said oil-producing countries could find a "middle way" to resolve the impasse, meaning a price war similar to last year's is unlikely.
Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to rise to at least $80 a barrel or more by the third quarter of 2021, reaching $85 to $90 a barrel.
