SMM11 March 12: the non-ferrous metals market has its ups and downs today. By the end of the day, Shanghai Aluminum rose 1.13%, Shanghai Nickel rose 0.743%, Shanghai lead rose 0.62%, Shanghai Tin fell 0.03%, Shanghai Copper fell 0.31%, Shanghai Zinc fell 0.57%. The US dollar held gains across the board during the Asian session on Thursday, and investors lowered their optimistic expectations for novel coronavirus vaccine, as the vaccine is unlikely to avoid the pessimistic form of winter in Europe and the United States. At present, the first epidemic situation of novel coronavirus in the second wave is on the rise. In addition, there are still many uncertainties in the US election, with the Trump campaign suing in Michigan and Georgia announcing a recount.
In terms of copper, today, the copper closed in Shanghai, the KDJ line continues to open, the candle picture is still above the Bollinger rail, and the support is still obvious. In the evening, we will pay attention to the data guidelines on the outer disk and the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States, and observe whether Shanghai Copper can gain upward momentum.
[brief Review of SMM Copper Futures] the layout of reducing positions and distant months in recent months, Shanghai and Copper hold the Bollinger middle rail to seek ratio repair.
In terms of lead, Shanghai lead closed second Lianyang, strong upward within the day, closed on the 40-day moving average, 5-day moving average also wore the 10-day and 20-day moving average to form a strong support, the technical situation is more than idling, while the fundamental reduction of lead supply shortage to a certain extent to support lead prices, but downstream consumption is still light to lead prices upward pressure, night attention to whether Shanghai lead can completely stand on the 40-day moving average.
[brief Review of lead in SMM period] Shanghai lead has a strong upward trend and pays attention to the 40-day moving average pressure level at night.
In terms of zinc, zinc recorded a bald negative column, giving back the previous day's increase, mainly due to the flight of bulls, market optimism faded, the impact of production restrictions on environmental protection in the north, the impact of superimposed consumption margin weakening, consumer support is weak, taking into account the further decline in prices in Europe, zinc may continue to run weakly in the evening.
[SMM zinc brief review] Market optimism fades or zinc may continue weak finishing in the evening
In terms of black system, thread fell 0.29%, hot coil fell 0.61%, stainless steel fell 1.35%, coke fell 1.18%, coke rose 1.09%, iron ore fell 0.3%. In the short term, the fundamentals still have strong support. At a time when demand is obviously improving and terminal steel needs to be released smoothly, according to SMM research, the actual thread output of blast furnace steel mills that mainly produce building materials in November is 8.0091 million tons, down 3.41 percent from September; and coil production is 3.0105 million tons, down 3.04 percent from the previous month. Therefore, the strong fundamentals can continue to support the stable and strong operation of spot prices. However, it is worth noting that, on the one hand, the coil gap that has lasted for more than half a year has been opened again, and the rebound in profits of steel mills will inevitably be accompanied by the enhancement of the willingness to produce, that is, the price "skyrocketing" at the same time, the risk of price decline in the later period also continues to accumulate.
Crude oil fell 1.88 per cent in the previous period, while US oil and Brent crude rose in early trading in Asia on Thursday, but fell slightly in the afternoon. Oil prices rose earlier today, rising more than 11 per cent on a weekly basis, on growing expectations that the world's major oil producers will suspend plans to increase production. But the deteriorating demand outlook and the negative monthly report from OPEC are a drag on the decline in oil prices. Increased cases of COVID-19 infection in Europe, the United States and Latin America put pressure on fuel demand. As a result, OPEC says demand recovery in 2021 will be slower than previously expected.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 0.17%, Shanghai silver fell 0.55%, and national spot gold rose slightly on Thursday. Concerns about the economic impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic have outweighed optimism about vaccine progress. Analysts say gold traders are trying to strike a balance between positive vaccine news and a rise in novel coronavirus cases worldwide. While vaccines may affect the medium-and long-term trend of gold prices, monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are needed to support the global economy in the near future.
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Today's capital flow
Today, the capital flow is much more stable than a few days ago, the chemical sector inflow of 400 million yuan ranked first in the plate, Shanghai glue contributed more, absorbing 430 million yuan ranked first in commodities. Methanol dragged down the hind legs with an outflow of 400 million yuan, which also ranked first. In addition, the crude oil plate outflowed more than 500 million yuan, far more than the rest of the plate. Because crude oil, LPG and fuel all show capital outflow.
