Review and Forecast of Nickel Holiday: Lunni stocks fell 15.7% in a week and bulls supported nickel prices.

SMM news: Lunni inventory fell 15.7% in a week, the outer disk bullish support nickel price is strong

Macroscopically, during the holiday period, the United States released a series of economic data, of which the ISM manufacturing PMI in September hit a new low of 47.8 in nearly a decade, the non-manufacturing PMI hit a new low of 52.6 in nearly three years, and the non-farm employment data in September was slightly lower than expected at 136000, although the unemployment rate hit a new low of 3.5% in 50 years. According to CME "Fed Watch" analysis, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50-1.75 per cent in October is 78 per cent.

During the National Day period, Lunni operated strongly under the support of bulls, the 0-3 premium remained above $100, and warehouse receipt inventories fell sharply almost every day. By 11:00 on October 7th, Lunni had climbed to around $17790 a tonne, up 3.9 per cent from its closing price of $17125 a tonne on September 30.

On the inventory side, Lunni stocks fell by 133128 tons on October 4, with a drop of 7776 tons on the same day, the largest drop on record and a 15.7 per cent drop from 157986 tons on September 30.

Nickel market judgment: there is no obvious change in the fundamentals of the nickel market before the National Day, and it is difficult to determine the obvious direction of the fierce game between the outer disk and the outside disk. Considering that the 300 series of domestic stainless steel plants are not integrated and there may be a production reduction plan due to the pressure of losses, the fundamentals more support a short-term correction in nickel prices. During the holiday Lunni extrusion market shows that the bulls are still working, this struggle with the fundamentals does not rule out the strategy to induce more, on the whole, the post-festival market or a wide concussion attitude, after all, Lunni in the huge Back structure under the limited increase, Shanghai nickel may not be a big increase after the opening of the market.

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