Since November, the ex-factory price of primary magnesium ingots has changed its previous diving trend and has risen for many days in a row. On December 29th, the spot price of SMM magnesium ingot 9990 (Shanghai) was 50000 yuan / ton, up 66.7% from its low in early November.
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In addition, on December 29, it was reported that the launch of the national magnesium-based energy storage materials innovation consortium and the opening ceremony of the Great Bay area hydrogen Energy Industry and Technology Research Institute were held.
Pan Fusheng, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and director of the National magnesium Alloy Materials Engineering Technology Center, pointed out that magnesium-based hydrogen storage materials are one of the materials with the highest hydrogen storage density in metal solid hydrogen storage materials, and magnesium alloy batteries are a new generation of batteries with great potential. it has begun to attract great attention from countries all over the world. According to Pan Fusheng, the next step is to carry out industrial research and development and promotion of the products in depth and breadth, and quickly enter China's hydrogen energy and battery application market.
In fact, in addition to fuel cells, magnesium is also a potentially popular model for new energy vehicles.
"magnesium aluminum" is expected to erupt.
Compared with aluminum alloy template, magnesium alloy template has the advantages of long service life and recyclability, lighter weight and stronger alkali corrosion resistance.
Pioneer Securities pointed out that the lightweight of cars is the general trend, and the demand for mileage and safety of new energy vehicles is more urgent. In recent years, the amount of magnesium used for bicycles in China has increased from 1.5 kg in 2015 to nearly 5 kg. At present, it is possible to popularize some large structures.
According to the "Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" plan released by the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineering, the weight of pure motorcycles will drop by 35% in 2035, and magnesium alloys will have a broad market for automobile lightweight in the future.
Chuang Chuang Securities also said that at present, some magnesium alloy companies have obtained confirmation orders for lithium battery components in Ningde era, and the lithium battery structure "magnesium aluminum" is also expected to explode. With the release of lithium battery magnesium alloy structures and magnesium building formwork next year, the downstream demand for magnesium is expected to burst. At the same time, automobile lightweight brings high ceiling of industry growth, and magnesium is a high-quality growth small metal in the next 5 years.
What is the pattern of magnesium industry?
From the perspective of raw materials, magnesite and dolomite are the main ways to obtain magnesium resources at present. The main raw material of magnesium smelting in the world is dolomite, but China is rich in dolomite resources, even if calculated according to the global output, the static guarantee life is also more than 3000 years.
According to USGS data, the global output of magnesium ingots is relatively stable, with an annual output of about 1 million tons, while China is the world's leading producer of magnesium ingots, with a market share of more than 85 per cent in the past five years.
From a domestic point of view, the main output is concentrated in Shaanxi and Shaanxi, the two accounted for the top two, accounting for a total of about 85%, other regions accounted for about 15%.
Magnesium price rebounded driven by many factors
As for the above increase in magnesium prices, Shouchuang Securities explained: as ferrosilicon accounts for the highest proportion of the cost side in magnesium smelting, and affected by policies such as double control this year, ferrosilicon prices and coal prices have risen sharply, pushing up the cost of magnesium prices.
On the demand side, the downstream demand for magnesium is mainly concentrated in the automotive field, and because the amount of magnesium used for bicycles abroad is higher than that at home, the overseas demand for magnesium is relatively high. With the recovery of overseas economy in 2021, the overall demand for magnesium increases rapidly.
In terms of production capacity, due to the high energy consumption of original magnesium smelting, it is easy to produce a large amount of waste gas and residue, which has been included in the restricted list in 2011, while the construction of new capacity is subject to strict examination and approval, and there are more occasional production reductions caused by environmental inspection.
In the third quarter of 2021, the main magnesium ingots producing areas such as Shaanxi and Shanxi failed to complete the "double control" requirements, so the original magnesium production capacity was limited. Among them, about 15 magnesium factories in Shaanxi have been asked to suspend operations, and 30 magnesium factories have been asked to reduce production by 50%.
Returning to the trend of magnesium prices during the year, Chuang Chuang Securities believes that under the dual drive of cost and demand, the smelting of original magnesium in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Anhui was suspended in the third quarter under the influence of "double control", and magnesium prices reached a new high, but then as ferrosilicon prices went down, magnesium prices began to return.
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