Nickel price judgment: last Friday, the Chinese government work report released, did not mention the 2020 GDP growth target, causing market concern, the metal fell widely. Pinning hopes on further domestic economic stimulus and the recovery of the overseas epidemic, and at present, there seems to be a lack of bright positive policies, and the only tax cut expectation is also a slightly negative message for prices; a wave of small bull market under the background of the "two sessions" has basically come to an end, and it is expected to continue wide shocks in the face of stainless steel-nickel fundamental stalemate, light nickel spot transactions and signs of burdening stocks, and it is more difficult to continue to push higher. It is expected that this week's nickel price range, Shanghai nickel 98500mur103000 yuan / ton, Lunni 11800mur12500 US dollars / ton.
1. Nickel spot: since last Monday, all traders have shifted from Shanghai Nickel 06 contracts to 07 main monthly contract quotations. After the turn of the month, traders are more willing to raise prices. At the beginning of the week, Russo Nickel's mainstream quotation for Shanghai Nickel 2007 contract has been reported near Pingshui, and continued to hold steady in the next few days. With Shanghai Nickel for four consecutive days, the downstream fear of high delivery is cautious, making spot trading more and more deserted. It was not until the nickel price plunged on Friday and returned to around 100,000 that downstream demand was released and trading volume rebounded significantly. As for Jinchuan nickel, manufacturers continue to be out of stock in Shanghai, and traders mostly bring it up in Jinchang, so the supply is tight and the space for rising water is limited. The continuous rise in nickel prices has caused Jinchuan Company to reduce the ex-factory price by an appropriate amount, stimulating traders to receive goods. The circulation of nickel in Jinchuan did not improve until Friday. At the beginning of last week, the import window briefly opened, nickel plates flowed into the country one after another in the bonded area, and some of the original nickel beans also arrived, but the holder did not reduce the price, so the spot rising water was not affected, and it is expected that the rising water will remain stable this week.
2. Nickel pig iron: last week, high nickel pig iron prices held steady at 970 Mel 990 yuan / ton (including factory tax). The rise in nickel prices did not support the continued rise in Ferro nickel prices, but provided cost support for ferronickel prices. The sharp correction in nickel prices on Friday showed downside risks in stainless steel, but there was limited room for Ferro nickel prices to decline under cost support. It is expected that this week or under the premise of a reduction in stainless steel prices, high-nickel pig iron will yield a small profit under pressure, and it is predicted that the price of high-nickel pig iron will run at 950 RMB980 per nickel point (including factory tax).
3, stainless steel: may 22nd Wuxi stainless steel private cold and hot rolling quotation slightly reduced, 304amp 2B rough edge coiling price range 13500mur13800 yuan / ton, the average price reduced 50 yuan / ton; 304gamma 2B factory coil price quoted 13900mur14100 yuan / ton, the average price decreased 50 yuan / ton. The average price is reduced by 50 yuan / ton; 304gambit 2B factory coiling price is 13900q14100 yuan / ton, and the average price is reduced by 50 yuan / ton. Last week, the overall turnover in the spot market is light, the price is weak, and the correlation impact of the downward nickel price on stainless steel is superimposed. It is expected that stainless steel prices will face downward risk in the later stage.
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