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Analysis of Global Aluminum Market – Supply, Demand & Trade Flow Dynamics
The global aluminum market is currently characterized by a distinct divergence between Chinese and overseas markets. Overseas markets have performed strongly amid supply-side disruptions, while the domestic market has also strengthened due to similar supply disturbances but remained relatively weak compared with the LME. Details on supply, demand, trade and market structure are as follows: I. Overseas Aluminum Market: Prominent Supply Tightness and Sustained Pressure on Inventories The core contradiction in overseas aluminum markets lies in supply contraction and low inventory levels, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, further intensifying supply tightness. In terms of LME inventory data, current inventories remain on a continuous downward trend, greatly weakening their supportive role in the market. Historically and recently, LME cancelled warrants peaked at 178,000 tonnes earlier, accounting for 39% of total inventory. As a result, the effectively available LME inventory has dropped to its lowest level since May 2025, further highlighting tight overseas supply. Supply contraction has widened the market deficit, with production cuts at two key projects—EGA and Alba—having a particularly significant impact.On March 28, EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE and Alba’s plant in Bahrain were attacked, causing equipment damage and sharply raising risks of capacity disruptions. This came on top of earlier disruptions: March 15: Alba reduced output at three production lines due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz; March 12: Qatar’s Qatalum smelter suspended 40% of capacity due to natural gas supply cuts. Overseas primary aluminum supply deficits are expected to continue widening. Meanwhile, high energy costs in Europe have also reduced local semi-fabricated aluminum output, further tightening supply. Supply tightness has directly driven a sharp rise in overseas spot premiums. Amid supply concerns from escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the Q2 MJP premium rose by approximately USD 156.5/t to USD 351.5/t. Specifically, major regional premiums rose markedly at end-March: CIF South Korea: from USD 168/t (early March) to USD 292/t; CIF Thailand: from USD 183/t to USD 317/t; European Duty Unpaid: from USD 345/t to USD 400/t; US Midwest DDP: from 103.75 cents/lb to 105.5 cents/lb. This fully reflects that expectations of tight primary aluminum supply have enabled sellers to push up quotations. Downstream demand and purchasing patterns vary significantly across regions: South Korea: Phase-wise restocking completed; weak downstream restocking sentiment, limited demand support. Southeast Asia: Dominated by term contract execution with limited spot restocking; insufficient incremental buying momentum. Europe: Rising supply shortage concerns amid production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain; downstream restocking underway, relatively strong demand. United States: Low inventories entering a restocking cycle, providing moderate market support. II. Chinese Aluminum Market: High Inventory Pressure, Weak and Constrained Demand In contrast to strong overseas markets, the domestic aluminum market has strengthened amid supply disruptions but underperformed relative to the LME, characterized by high inventories and constrained demand. High domestic aluminum prices have continued to suppress downstream purchasing. Current buying is mainly order-based rigid demand, with low willingness for active restocking, providing limited upward support. Domestic inventory pressure has not eased effectively: primary aluminum inventories remain elevated, and inventory destocking has progressed slower than expected, likely prolonging the digestion period.High inventories and high prices form dual constraints. Although the domestic market has upward momentum, it is weaker than overseas. Domestic spot premiums are expected to remain under pressure and further widen in the short term.
Apr 1, 2026 00:01
Analysis of Global Aluminum Market – Supply, Demand & Trade Flow Dynamics
Post-Conference Tour: Connecting Global Lead-Zinc Giants with Key Chinese Players
Post-Conference Tour: Connecting Global Lead-Zinc Giants with Key Chinese Players
The 2026 SMM (21st) Lead & Zinc Conference and Industry Expo opened grandly at Howard Johnson Agile Plaza in Chengdu, Sichuan during March 25–27 2026. Organized by SMM, the event brought together global enterprises, professional experts and industry peers from across the entire lead and zinc supply chain. Participants focused on industry hot topics, analyzed market trends and explored development strategies, establishing a highly efficient platform for communication and collaboration to support high-quality growth of the sector. To further strengthen the overseas delegation’s comprehensive understanding of China’s lead and zinc industrial chain and build closer connections between international industry peers and key producers in China, SMM led a high-level overseas delegation on a multi-day industrial tour starting on the afternoon of March 27. The delegation included representatives from global giants, such as Nyrstar, a top European lead and zinc smelting firm, Nexa Resources, a South American giant in lead-zinc mining and smelting, and Befesa, a pioneer in zinc recycling. During the tour, the delegation visited 8 Chinese enterprises. including: COSCO Shipping Sichuan Chengtun Zinc & Germanium Technology Sichuan Kunshun Zinc Industry Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Hongzhou Hongqian Nonferrous Chemical Yunnan Zhenxing Industrial Group Mengzi Mining & Metallurgy Danxia Smelter of Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet The delegation members went deep into production sites, held in-depth discussions and exchanges, and gained a full picture of China’s lead and zinc industry in terms of production operations, technological innovation, capacity scale and market layout, greatly enhancing their insight into and understanding of the entire industrial chain. SMM has systematically compiled detailed information of all enterprises that were visited during this tour, with details below: COSCO Shipping On the afternoon of March 27, the delegation visited COSCO Shipping for an exchange, where they received a warm welcome from the company's leadership. Both sides engaged in discussions on topics such as equipment transportation and technological upgrades. Sichuan COSCO Shipping Logistics Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of COSCO Shipping Logistics Supply Chain Co., Ltd., registered and established in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, with an investment of 30 million yuan. COSCO Shipping Logistics Supply Chain Co., Ltd. is affiliated with China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited and serves as a core member of the "shipping, ports, and logistics" segment of COSCO Shipping Group, as well as an important component of its global digital supply chain system. The company operates warehouse space exceeding 6 million m², including 19 futures delivery warehouses. China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited is a globally leading shipping enterprise group, with a combined fleet capacity of 130 million DWT across 1,535 vessels, ranking first in the world. Sichuan COSCO Shipping Logistics Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. holds business qualifications and an operational scope covering multiple transportation modes including sea, land, air, and rail, providing comprehensive logistics services spanning both international and Chinese markets. Since entering the non-ferrous metals delivery warehouse business in 2016, the company has adhered to the principle of "client-centered and market-oriented," continuously enhancing its service capabilities and achieving steady business growth. Currently, at key logistics periods such as Shanghai Baoshan, Shanghai Yangshan, and Yixing in Jiangsu, the company successfully operates delivery warehouses designated by the Shanghai Futures Exchange for copper, nickel, zinc, and other products. It has become one of the three major non-ferrous metals warehouses of SHFE and was honored with the title of "Top Ten Designated Non-Ferrous Metals Delivery Warehouses" by the Shanghai Futures Exchange for two consecutive years. Sichuan Chengtun Zinc & Germanium Technology Co., Ltd. On March 28, the delegation visited Sichuan Chengtun Zinc & Germanium Technology Co., Ltd. (Shimian City). Both sides engaged in in-depth exchanges on the development of the zinc smelting industry, with a focus on thorough discussions regarding product processing, production techniques, capacity scale, market trends, and the current challenges facing the industry. Sichuan Chengtun Zinc & Germanium Technology Co., Ltd. was established on December 6, 2015, with a registered capital of 1.6 billion yuan. The company has an annual capacity of 300,000 mt of electrolytic zinc, 150,000 mt of sulphuric acid, 400,000 mt of electrolytic zinc waste residue processing, and 40 mt of high-purity germanium dioxide. On January 16, 2019, the company was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and merged into the publicly listed firm Chengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. The company's main business includes smelting and R&D of zinc-germanium series products, as well as comprehensive recovery of multiple metals. It has formed a complete industry chain from zinc concentrates entering the plant to finished products leaving the plant. Its production lines include zinc calcine, electrolytic zinc, electrolytic zinc waste residue processing, and comprehensive recovery of rare and precious metals. Sichuan Kunshun Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (Shimian City) On March 28, the delegation headed to Sichuan Kunshun Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (Shimian City) for a visit and exchange, where they received a warm reception from the enterprise. Both parties held in-depth discussions and exchanges on zinc smelting, covering topics such as production costs, production and market landscape, raw material procurement and processing, industry chain competitive advantages, and distinctive process technologies. Sichuan Kunshun Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. is a specialized and green environmental protection enterprise jointly invested and established by Sichuan Metallurgical Holding Group Co., Ltd. and Shimian Dongshun Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. to implement the national green production philosophy, actively develop the circular economy, and promote the comprehensive utilization of solid waste resources. It integrates solid waste treatment, recycling, and resource regeneration. The company primarily uses high-tech methods to carry out clean utilization and harmless treatment of heavy metal-containing waste generated by industries such as metallurgy and chemicals, eliminating the environmental impact of heavy metal solid waste at the source. The company was established in 2021 and is located in Zhuma Industrial Park, Shimian County, Ya'an City, Sichuan Province, covering an area of 65 mu with a total investment of 180 million yuan. The company has built a 3.5m × 50m Waelz rotary kiln production line, equipped with advanced and well-established low-grade zinc oxide production technology, achieving a resource recovery utilization rate of over 95% and effectively managing waste gas, noise, solid waste, and groundwater risks. It is also equipped with supporting facilities including desulphurization, denitrification, and flue gas defogging towers, as well as a wastewater treatment station, raw material warehouse, raw material pre-washing workshop, water slag processing workshop, biomass semi-gasification furnace, zinc crystallized salt workshop, production safety and environmental protection center, and laboratory for detection and testing. The company holds qualifications for treating hazardous waste categories including HW12, HW17, HW23, HW48, and HW49, with an annual capacity to process 100,000 mt of zinc-containing waste. Its main products include low-grade zinc oxide and zinc crystallized salt. The company has always upheld the green and environmentally friendly development philosophy, adhering to the fundamentals of "being responsible for the environment, for clients, and for employees," guided by technological innovation, and targeting the "reduction, recycling, and detoxification" of solid waste pollution prevention and control. The company is committed to building a modern "solid waste" management and disposal service provider, actively carrying out emergency environmental protection disposal, proactively assuming social service functions, and making positive contributions to promoting the circular economy development in Sichuan and strengthening the ecological civilization construction of lucid waters and lush mountains! Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd. (Qujing City) On March 30, the delegation visited Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd. (Qujing City) for exchanges. During the meeting, both sides conducted in-depth discussions on key topics including magnesium removal process optimization, production management organization, and raw material substitution plans, and put forward constructive suggestions on improving the plant environment. Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd. was established to fully leverage Luoping's local hydropower and lead-zinc mineral resource advantages. In accordance with the "ore, electricity, and smelting integration" development strategy proposed by the Luoping County Party Committee and County Government, and the overall requirements of the Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government for the reform of industrial enterprises across the city, the company was registered and established at the Yunnan Provincial Administration for Industry and Commerce on December 21, 2000. It was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange A-share market in 2007 and is a state-controlled enterprise under Luoping County. The company's assets are an optimized combination of three components: hydropower, lead-zinc mines, and zinc smelting. In terms of company assets, they are primarily composed of three advantageous resources of Luoping: mineral, hydropower, and zinc smelting. These mainly include six production units: Luoping County Fule Lead-Zinc Mine with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 mt of raw ore, Lazhuang Power Plant with annual power generation of 250 million kWh (installed capacity of 60,000 kW), a zinc smelter with an annual output of 120,000 mt of electrolytic zinc, a zinc powder plant with an annual output of 12,000 mt of ultra-fine zinc powder, a comprehensive utilization plant with an annual processing capacity of 129,500 mt of zinc slag, and a sulphuric acid plant with an annual output of 140,000 mt of sulphuric acid, achieving a total annual industrial output value exceeding 2 billion yuan. The company has six wholly-owned subsidiaries. The company's main businesses include hydropower generation, mining of lead, zinc, and other non-ferrous metals, as well as the production and sales of zinc smelting and its extended products. It is currently the only publicly listed firm in China's zinc smelting industry that integrates mining, power generation, chemical processing, and smelting. Its products include zinc sulphide concentrates, lead concentrates, zinc ingots, industrial sulphuric acid, ultra-fine zinc powder, cadmium, germanium concentrates, silver concentrates, copper concentrates, zinc alloys, industrial and residential electricity, edible oils and fats, among others. Its main product, "Jiulong" brand zinc ingots, is popular in non-ferrous product markets in and outside China thanks to its superior product quality and corporate reputation. Honghe Prefecture Hongqian Non-ferrous Chemical Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. On March 31, the delegation visited Honghe Prefecture Hongqian Non-ferrous Chemical Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. for exchanges. The two sides held in-depth discussions on topics including the economic benefits of smelting by-products, energy utilization efficiency, the current status of enterprise development, and future cooperation intentions. Honghe Prefecture Hongqian Non-ferrous Chemical Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. was established on August 1, 2007, with a registered capital of 50 million yuan. The total investment in project construction was 475.5543 million yuan. The company currently has over 600 employees and covers an area of 443 mu. The plant is located in the Heishenmiaobo Industrial Zone, situated in the central area of the Gejiu-Kaiyuan-Mengzi urban cluster. The company is a new-type joint-stock enterprise centered on crude lead smelting, integrating sulphur dioxide acid production, waste heat power generation, lead electrolysis, and recovery of precious and rare metals such as gold, silver, antimony, and bismuth, with further extension into deep processing of lead-series products including red lead, massicot, electrode plates, and storage batteries. It is a benchmark enterprise among private lead smelters in the city, featuring a relatively large scale, advanced technology, compliance with environmental protection standards, comprehensive utilization of resources, and a complete industry chain. The company pioneered the application of new technologies to upgrade and transform the traditional crude lead smelting model among private enterprises in the city. The company has formulated the working philosophy of "prioritizing environmental protection, ensuring safety, attracting talent, enforcing strict management, and enhancing efficiency," and continues to drive high-quality development. In April 2007, the company commissioned China ENFI Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. to conduct a feasibility study on the lead smelting technological transformation project, and determined a comprehensive industrial facility technological transformation project with a total investment of 490 million yuan and an annual capacity of 60,000 mt of crude lead. On December 21, 2009, the "Demonstration Project of Oxygen-Enriched Bottom-Blowing Lead Smelting Technology with Annual Output of 60,000 mt of Crude Lead" was designated by the Provincial Department of Science and Technology as a 2009 Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology Innovation Project. In 2010, it was further designated as a key industrial project by the provincial, prefectural, and municipal governments. On November 14, 2011, the company obtained ISO9001:2008 quality management system certification. On March 7, 2012, "HSPb99.94PCT" was successfully registered on the London Metal Exchange. In 2019, the company successively passed the safety completion acceptance and environmental impact assessment completion acceptance, fully achieving compliant operations and sustainable development. Yunnan Zhenxing Industrial Group Co., Ltd. On March 31, the delegation headed to Yunnan Zhenxing Industrial Group Co., Ltd. for a visit and exchange. Both parties conducted in-depth discussions on topics including Yunnan Province's mineral resource endowment, smelting industry development trends, corporate business strategies, and technological innovation applications, jointly assessing the current status and prospects of the industry and analyzing the challenges and opportunities ahead. Yunnan Zhenxing Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Group") was founded in 1996 and is located in the Chongposhao New Materials Industrial Park, Shadian Sub-district Office, Gejiu City. The Group currently has 7 subsidiaries, 2 holding companies, and 1 equity-participation company, with approximately 3,000 employees. Its capacity reaches annual output of crude lead (100,000 mt), electrolytic lead (60,000 mt), zinc ingot (20,000 mt), lead-acid battery plates (9 million sets), lead-acid batteries (6 million units), superphosphate (350,000 mt), sulphuric acid (200,000 mt), and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) (60,000 mt). The Group has established five major production sites and five major product brands covering crude lead raw material, lead-zinc smelting, power supply manufacturing, fertilizer and chemical production, and resource recovery. It has formed an internal industrial cycle spanning lead ore mining—lead-zinc smelting—lead-based alloy melting—battery manufacturing—waste battery recycling—precious metals production, making it one of the few private non-ferrous enterprises in China with a complete lead industry chain. Since 2013, the Group has been consecutively recognized as one of the Top 100 Non-Public Enterprises in Yunnan Province. In 2025, it ranked 41st among the "Top 100 Non-Public Enterprises in Yunnan Province" and was selected for the first time into the "Top 20 Private Enterprises in Innovation Capability," ranking 7th. Yunnan Shadian Lead Industry Co., Ltd., a subsidiary controlled by the Group, ranked 71st. The Group has received nearly 100 honors at various levels, including "High-tech Enterprise," "Outstanding Private Technology Enterprise," "Enterprise with Harmonious Labor Relations," "Provincial Model Collective for Ethnic Unity and Progress," and "Key Enterprise for Industrial Development in Honghe Prefecture" in Yunnan Province. The Group's Yunsha brand lead ingot was successfully registered on the London Metal Exchange in 2007 and on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2020. In 2021, the Group was rated AAA in enterprise credit rating in the national non-ferrous metals industry. In August 2024, it was designated as a "Qiangyuan Zhuqi" Industry-Finance Service Base by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Looking ahead, the Group will pursue the philosophy of "seeking survival, pursuing development, and accelerating enterprise transformation and upgrading," adhering to the working approach of "rooting in Honghe, basing in Yunnan, radiating to surrounding regions, and expanding across China." It will thoroughly implement strategies of enterprise management transformation, technology-driven development, talent empowerment, and sustainable development, striving to achieve significant increases in capacity and production of major products by 2035, with gross industrial output value up YoY, and to build itself into a 10 billion green lead-zinc comprehensive recycling technology enterprise. Mengzi Mining and Metallurgy Co., Ltd. On March 31, SMM and the field trip delegation headed to Mengzi Mining and Metallurgy Co., Ltd. for a visit and exchange. Both parties engaged in in-depth discussions on the entire zinc smelting process, covering topics including production technology, raw material supply, product sales, environmental protection governance, and future development plans, aiming to share experience, address industry pain points, and jointly clarify the direction of development. Mengzi Mining and Metallurgy Co., Ltd. was established in 1996. It is a resource-based mining and metallurgy enterprise integrating R&D, exploration, mining, mineral processing, smelting, and trading, with a focus on comprehensive utilization of resources. The company is one of the few comprehensive private enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry that possesses an entire industry chain and operates independent trading and supply chain business platforms. It is among the top 100 enterprises in Yunnan Province and a key enterprise in Honghe Prefecture. Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co., Ltd. — Danxia Smelter On April 2, the SMM delegation visited Zhongjin Lingnan's Danxia Smelter for a survey and field trip to the core plant area. In-depth discussions were held on production operations, technological R&D, and raw material procurement, covering key topics such as production capacity, technical cooperation, and raw material procurement strategies. Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zhongjin Lingnan") was established in September 1984 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 1997 (stock code: 000060). It is an internationalized entire industry chain resource company primarily engaged in lead, zinc, and copper mining, mineral processing, and smelting, as well as comprehensive recovery of rare, scattered, and precious metals. It is a publicly listed firm controlled by Guangsheng Holdings Group, a key wholly state-owned enterprise under Guangdong Province. Zhongjin Lingnan's business covers segments including mines, smelting, new materials, and supply chains. It has 23 directly affiliated enterprises, wholly-owned and controlled subsidiaries. Major operating entities include Fankou Lead-Zinc Mine, Shaoguan Smelter, Danxia Smelter, Zhongjin Copper Co., Guangxi Mining Co., Perilya Limited in Australia, Zhongjin Technology Co., and Huajiari Co. The company has an annual output of 300,000 mt of lead and zinc metal content in concentrates, 450,000 mt of smelted lead and zinc products, 450,000 mt of copper cathode, 21,000 mt of aluminum extrusion, 20,000 mt of battery zinc powder, and 5,400 mt of composite metal materials. Among these, its battery zinc powder ranked first in Chinese market share, nickel-metal hydride and nickel-cadmium battery electrode sheets & plates materials ranked first in Chinese market share, and thermal bimetal ranked first in Chinese market share. The 2026 field trip brought together some global lead and zinc industry leaders for an inspiring and highly productive journey across China’s leading smelters and enterprises. The warm welcome, operational excellence, and innovative technologies on display made this event a resounding success — and we extend our deepest gratitude to all the companies and participants who made it happen. Looking ahead – Save the date for 2027: We are excited to announce that the 2027 SMM (22nd) Lead & Zinc Conference and Industry EXPO will take place from March 17–19, 2027 in Kunming, Yunnan, China . This premier event will once again bring together the global lead-zinc community for high-level networking, insight sharing, and industrial exploration. Interactive call – We want to hear from you: As we plan the field trip for the 2027 conference, we’d love your input. Which smelters or companies would you most like to visit for technical exchange and on-site learning? Please share your suggestions in the comments below — your feedback will help shape the 2027 experience. Let us know where the industry should go next!
Common.Time.hoursAgo
【SMM Analysis】India Steel Market 2026: Demand-Led Growth Reshapes Trade Flows and Market Balance
【SMM Analysis】India Steel Market 2026: Demand-Led Growth Reshapes Trade Flows and Market Balance
India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.
Mar 30, 2026 15:19
Pullback as an Opportunity: Analysts Raise Gold Forecast to $6,300!
Gold has lost significant ground in recent weeks, but for Wells Fargo, this apparently changes little in the long-term picture. The US bank has reaffirmed its positive outlook for the precious metal and significantly raised its price target for the current year.
Apr 1, 2026 11:10
【SMM Hot Topic】Vietnam Blocks HRC Exports from China: New Anti-Circumvention Measures Impact Trade
Case Details September 18, 2025 Vietnam’s Trade Remedies Authority issued an announcement stating that, on September 10, 2025, a Vietnamese producer filed an application for an anti-circumvention investigation into HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China with a width greater than 1,880 mm and less than 2,300 mm. October 27, 2025 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Announcement No. 3176/QD-BCT, stating that, upon application by a Vietnamese producer, it had initiated an anti-circumvention investigation in the anti-dumping case concerning HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China, to examine whether the products under investigation had been slightly modified into HRC with a width exceeding 1,880 mm and less than or equal to 2,300 mm for export to Vietnam in order to evade anti-dumping duties. The announcement took effect on the date of issuance. April 2, 2026 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade temporarily applied anti-circumvention trade remedy measures to certain hot-rolled steel plate products originating in the People’s Republic of China. The Vietnamese tariff codes of the products under investigation are 7208.25.00, 7208.26.00, 7208.27.19, 7208.27.99, 7208.36.00, 7208.37.00, 7208.38.00, 7208.39.20, 7208.39.40, 7208.39.90, 7208.52.00, 7208.53.00, 7208.54.90, 7208.90.90, 7211.14.15, 7211.14.16, 7211.14.19, 7211.19.13, 7211.19.19, 7211.90.12, 7211.90.19, 7225.30.90, 7225.40.90, 7225.99.90, 7226.91.10, and 7226.91.90. All producers and export enterprises of the People’s Republic of China are subject to an anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 Products not subject to the temporary anti-circumvention trade remedy measures include: hot-rolled steel plate products with carbon content (by weight) > 0.30%; hot-rolled steel plate products in coil form with thickness ≥10 mm; hot-rolled steel plate products formally excluded from the scope of anti-dumping duties pursuant to Decision No. 1959/QĐ-BCT dated July 4, 2025; and steel plate products of grades BW450, BS700MCK2, AG700, and LG700T. This decision will take effect 15 days after the date of issuance. From Anti-Dumping to Anti-Circumvention: What Changed in the Export Data? Previously, Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on China’s hot-rolled coil products applied only to products with a width not exceeding 1,880 mm, leading many Chinese exporters to evade tariffs by “slightly adjusting” product specifications into the wider 1,880-2,300 mm range. This anti-circumvention investigation and the subsequent duty decision were intended to completely close this loophole. Under the new rules, hot-rolled steel coils with widths between 1,880 mm and 2,300 mm will also be included in the taxable scope and be subject to the same anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 as the original products. Figure 1 Relationship Between Total HRC Exports to Vietnam and Exports of Products Involved in the Anti-Circumvention Case It can be seen that before the anti-dumping case was filed, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam mainly consisted of conventional-width coils below 1,880-2,300 mm. This was mainly because producing wide hot-rolled products above 2 meters requires special production lines, and the China steel mills capable of exporting such products were highly concentrated, mainly large steel enterprises such as Baowu, Angang, Bensteel Group, and WISCO, making them non-mainstream export products. After the preliminary anti-dumping ruling, the proportion of wide coils gradually increased. Another set of data shows the following. First, if the preliminary anti-dumping ruling is taken as the time period, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam from January to June of that year had already plunged 46 YoY to 2.3165 million mt, while exports of wide coils surged 815 YoY to 1.2964 million mt. This was also the main support for why the decline in the average exports of China’s HRC to Vietnam was not obvious during the period from the preliminary anti-dumping ruling to the filing of the anti-circumvention case. Second, if the filing of the anti-circumvention case is taken as the time period, as of December 2025, China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 1.0797 million mt, with a monthly average of 529,900 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 627,000 mt, accounting for 58.08. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 226,300 mt. Furthermore, if 2026 is taken as the time period, because the market had previously expected anti-circumvention measures to be implemented in December, some export traders still conducted transactions before then, so the data for November-December 2025 cannot fully reflect the actual reduction in export volumes caused by concerns over the confirmation of anti-circumvention measures. Since the beginning of 2026, China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 229,700 mt, with a monthly average of 114,800 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 131,300 mt, accounting for 57.17. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 49,200 mt, representing a decline of 3,789 YoY compared with the 2025 monthly average export volume. Impact of Anti-Circumvention Measures It is thus evident that the further implementation of anti-circumvention measures will further narrow the channel for China’s hot-rolled products to be exported to Vietnam. Last year, Vietnam was still the largest market for China’s hot-rolled exports, but the export landscape may change significantly in the future as a result of this incident. For China’s export enterprises, they should seize the remaining 15-day “breathing space” and accelerate shipments of orders on hand. In the long run, they need to proactively adjust their product mix and pay more attention to export opportunities for high-end products.
Apr 3, 2026 10:35

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Dec 20, 2024 17:40
【SMM Analysis:Downstream Alloy Plant Demand Weakens, November Manganese Ore Imports Decrease MoM.】
【SMM Analysis:Downstream Alloy Plant Demand Weakens, November Manganese Ore Imports Decrease MoM.】According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics show that China's total manganese ore imports in November 2024 were 2.2 million mt, down 24.88% MoM and 26.12% YoY. From January to November, cumulative imports totaled 26.79 million mt, down 15% YoY. In November, Australian ore imports were 101,200 mt (up 64.3% MoM); South African ore, 1.2383 million mt (down 26.62% MoM); Gabonese ore, 345,200 mt (down 17.58% MoM); Ghanaian ore, 305,500 mt (down 24.36% MoM); Brazilian ore, 105,300 mt (down 32.61% MoM); and Myanmar ore, 41,800 mt (up 868.82% MoM). Manganese ore imports from South Africa and Gabon decreased significantly, while imports from Australia increased. The primary reason for the MoM decrease in November manganese ore imports was the relatively high manganese ore inventory at Chinese ports, coupled with weak demand from downstream alloy plants, leading to lower purchasing enthusiasm for manganese ore. Overall, the supply surplus in the manganese ore market remains unchanged, and upward momentum for manganese ore is under pressure. To maintain supply-demand dynamics, overseas mines have adopted policies such as altering manganese ore transportation methods and reducing shipments.
Dec 20, 2024 16:10
Silicon Metal Delivery Warehouse Inventory Continues to Increase [SMM Silicon Inventory]  
According to SMM statistics, as of December 13, the total national social inventory of silicon metal reached 536,000 mt, up 9,000 mt WoW.
Dec 16, 2024 10:09
Operating Rates in Sichuan and Yunnan Remain Weak with Slight Declines; Some Electric Arc Furnaces at Large Plants in Xinjiang Resume Production [SMM Weekly Silicon Metal Survey]  
According to the SMM survey, the weekly production of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang (accounting for 76% of capacity) was 20,540 mt, with a weekly operating rate of 61%, showing a slight decline WoW.
Dec 16, 2024 10:06
Why is Mn3O4 chosen as the manganese source for LMFP?
The specific process route for LMFP is still being explored, and there is considerable variation among companies without a unified standard. Therefore, the manganese sources used also vary, including tetramanganese, manganese carbonate, manganese sulphate, dimanganese, manganese nitrate, and manganese oxalate, all of which are employed by various companies......
Dec 13, 2024 18:01
SMM Analysis on China November Silicon Metal Production and December Forecast
According to SMM statistics, China's silicon metal production in November decreased by 65,100 mt, down 13.9% MoM, and slightly increased by 0.3% YoY.
Dec 10, 2024 13:06
Analysis of Global Aluminum Market – Supply, Demand & Trade Flow Dynamics
Analysis of Global Aluminum Market – Supply, Demand & Trade Flow Dynamics
The global aluminum market is currently characterized by a distinct divergence between Chinese and overseas markets. Overseas markets have performed strongly amid supply-side disruptions, while the domestic market has also strengthened due to similar supply disturbances but remained relatively weak compared with the LME. Details on supply, demand, trade and market structure are as follows: I. Overseas Aluminum Market: Prominent Supply Tightness and Sustained Pressure on Inventories The core contradiction in overseas aluminum markets lies in supply contraction and low inventory levels, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, further intensifying supply tightness. In terms of LME inventory data, current inventories remain on a continuous downward trend, greatly weakening their supportive role in the market. Historically and recently, LME cancelled warrants peaked at 178,000 tonnes earlier, accounting for 39% of total inventory. As a result, the effectively available LME inventory has dropped to its lowest level since May 2025, further highlighting tight overseas supply. Supply contraction has widened the market deficit, with production cuts at two key projects—EGA and Alba—having a particularly significant impact.On March 28, EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE and Alba’s plant in Bahrain were attacked, causing equipment damage and sharply raising risks of capacity disruptions. This came on top of earlier disruptions: March 15: Alba reduced output at three production lines due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz; March 12: Qatar’s Qatalum smelter suspended 40% of capacity due to natural gas supply cuts. Overseas primary aluminum supply deficits are expected to continue widening. Meanwhile, high energy costs in Europe have also reduced local semi-fabricated aluminum output, further tightening supply. Supply tightness has directly driven a sharp rise in overseas spot premiums. Amid supply concerns from escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the Q2 MJP premium rose by approximately USD 156.5/t to USD 351.5/t. Specifically, major regional premiums rose markedly at end-March: CIF South Korea: from USD 168/t (early March) to USD 292/t; CIF Thailand: from USD 183/t to USD 317/t; European Duty Unpaid: from USD 345/t to USD 400/t; US Midwest DDP: from 103.75 cents/lb to 105.5 cents/lb. This fully reflects that expectations of tight primary aluminum supply have enabled sellers to push up quotations. Downstream demand and purchasing patterns vary significantly across regions: South Korea: Phase-wise restocking completed; weak downstream restocking sentiment, limited demand support. Southeast Asia: Dominated by term contract execution with limited spot restocking; insufficient incremental buying momentum. Europe: Rising supply shortage concerns amid production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain; downstream restocking underway, relatively strong demand. United States: Low inventories entering a restocking cycle, providing moderate market support. II. Chinese Aluminum Market: High Inventory Pressure, Weak and Constrained Demand In contrast to strong overseas markets, the domestic aluminum market has strengthened amid supply disruptions but underperformed relative to the LME, characterized by high inventories and constrained demand. High domestic aluminum prices have continued to suppress downstream purchasing. Current buying is mainly order-based rigid demand, with low willingness for active restocking, providing limited upward support. Domestic inventory pressure has not eased effectively: primary aluminum inventories remain elevated, and inventory destocking has progressed slower than expected, likely prolonging the digestion period.High inventories and high prices form dual constraints. Although the domestic market has upward momentum, it is weaker than overseas. Domestic spot premiums are expected to remain under pressure and further widen in the short term.
Apr 1, 2026 00:01
[SMM Analysis] India’s Stainless Steel Dilemma: Protect the Market, or Keep It Supplied
[SMM Analysis] India’s Stainless Steel Dilemma: Protect the Market, or Keep It Supplied
Apr 1, 2026 14:30
Post-Conference Tour: Connecting Global Lead-Zinc Giants with Key Chinese Players
Post-Conference Tour: Connecting Global Lead-Zinc Giants with Key Chinese Players
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【SMM Analysis】Sodium-Ion Battery Industry Chain Recovers in March, Setting Tone for Q2 Peak Season
【SMM Analysis】Sodium-Ion Battery Industry Chain Recovers in March, Setting Tone for Q2 Peak Season
Apr 3, 2026 13:43
【SMM Analysis】India Steel Market 2026: Demand-Led Growth Reshapes Trade Flows and Market Balance
【SMM Analysis】India Steel Market 2026: Demand-Led Growth Reshapes Trade Flows and Market Balance
Mar 30, 2026 15:19
Pullback as an Opportunity: Analysts Raise Gold Forecast to $6,300!
Pullback as an Opportunity: Analysts Raise Gold Forecast to $6,300!
Apr 1, 2026 11:10
【SMM Hot Topic】Vietnam Blocks HRC Exports from China: New Anti-Circumvention Measures Impact Trade
【SMM Hot Topic】Vietnam Blocks HRC Exports from China: New Anti-Circumvention Measures Impact Trade
Apr 3, 2026 10:35
Latest News
Jilang Indium Industry to Sell 1,000 kg of Crude Indium Ingots, Bids Due by April 7, 2026 Deadline
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【SMM Analysis】High Costs Worsen Loss Risks, Limited Demand Release Keeps Ferrochrome Stable
Mar 31, 2026 17:12
【SMM Analysis】Port Inventories Surge to Highs, Chromite Prices See Divergent Adjustments
Mar 30, 2026 10:42
Manganese-based Battery Materials: Differentiated Trends, Cost-Supported Stability
Mar 13, 2026 13:52
Manganese Sulfate: Sustained Rally on Cost Support & Firm Demand
Mar 13, 2026 13:20
Silicon metal production to recover in March after falling in February
Mar 3, 2026 11:16
2026 Spring Festival: Manganese Prices Stabilize, Feb Output Drops, March Recovery Expected
Feb 24, 2026 09:40
2026 Spring Festival: Manganese Sulfate Market Stable, Firm Prices, Tight Supply-Demand
Feb 24, 2026 09:31
Silicon Metal Market Review for January and Outlook for February
Feb 6, 2026 19:02
Cost and Supply-Demand Resonate, Tightness in Manganese Sulfate Market Intensifies Ahead of Spring Festival
Jan 29, 2026 19:39
Manganese Market Shows Strong Domestic and Stable External Conditions, Price Divergence Operates Under Raw Material Cost Support [SMM Manganese Morning Meeting Minutes]
Dec 19, 2025 09:44
Announcement on the Early Release of SMM Prices for Nickel, Cobalt, Manganese, and New Energy
Mar 20, 2025 13:47
The manganese dioxide market is relatively stable, with primary demand still concentrated in primary batteries.
Jan 10, 2025 18:49
Manganese Metal Oxidation Method - The Most Mainstream Process for Producing Tetramanganese
Dec 27, 2024 10:28
The production of high-purity manganese sulphate increased slightly in November and is expected to decline in December.
Dec 20, 2024 17:40
【SMM Analysis:Downstream Alloy Plant Demand Weakens, November Manganese Ore Imports Decrease MoM.】
Dec 20, 2024 16:10
Silicon Metal Delivery Warehouse Inventory Continues to Increase [SMM Silicon Inventory]  
Dec 16, 2024 10:09
Operating Rates in Sichuan and Yunnan Remain Weak with Slight Declines; Some Electric Arc Furnaces at Large Plants in Xinjiang Resume Production [SMM Weekly Silicon Metal Survey]  
Dec 16, 2024 10:06
Why is Mn3O4 chosen as the manganese source for LMFP?
Dec 13, 2024 18:01
SMM Analysis on China November Silicon Metal Production and December Forecast
Dec 10, 2024 13:06