[SMM Steel] Turkish Flat Steel: Domestic and Foreign Trade Stalemate Deepens as TRQs and CBAM Reshape Export Routes
[Turkey] The Turkish flat steel market remained overall subdued, with buyers and sellers locked in an intensifying tug-of-war. In domestic pricing, Turkish hot-rolled coil (HRC) ex-works prices held steady at 625 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT). However, market sources confirmed recent workable deals landing at 620 USD/tonne EXW, which has now established itself as the primary buying target and bidding benchmark for local buyers. On the import side, HRC import prices were quoted at 550–555 USD/tonne CFR Turkey, with mainstream offers for Chinese-origin material hovering around 550 USD/tonne CFR. On exports and quota logistics, mainstream Turkish HRC export offers held in the 620–630 USD/tonne FOB range. With European third-quarter and fourth-quarter safeguard quotas fully exhausted, Turkish exporters are strategically managing production and shipping schedules. Vessels are being timed to arrive near EU port anchorages after January 1st to defer customs clearance, thereby bypassing out-of-quota punitive duties. Sources indicate that mills previously locked in roughly 150,000 tonnes of December-shipment export orders specifically aligned with the opening of the Q1 2027 quota reset. Concurrently, EU CBAM compliance has become a central strategic focus: electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmakers utilizing scrap face an estimated carbon cost of approximately 20 USD/tonne. Despite documentation delay risks from select upstream precursor suppliers, several local EAF producers have begun providing explicit CBAM compliance guarantees directly to European buyers to safeguard market share.