PCAM & CAM Price Review and Forecast

Ternary cathode precursor

In the week ending March 21, higher raw material costs led to a slight increase in the prices of some precursor series. Higher nickel and cobalt salt prices, along with limited spot market availability for nickel salt, have made companies selective with orders, prioritizing key downstream clients. Demand for ternary materials has increased, boosting sales of 6-series models, with precursor orders in March surpassing expectations due to low battery stock. Facing high nickel and cobalt salt prices, some integrated cathode precursor firms with costly in-house production are choosing to externally source precursors instead of purchasing nickel salts and cobalt salts. This strategy has increased demand and led to a slight improvement in downstream price acceptance. Looking ahead, despite cost pressures potentially pushing ternary cathode precursor prices up, low downstream acceptance of high prices is likely to cap significant increases.

Ternary cathode material

Ternary cathode material prices rebounded in the week ending March 21, due to a slight increase in nickel and lithium costs, affecting the total cost of cathode materials. Downstream cell manufacturers are buying cautiously as needed, while the EV market is driven by long-term contracts. Some cathode producers have strong orders. Reduced lithium salt supply from battery cell manufacturers and no adjustments to lithium salt pricing mechanism have hurt profit margins, with some struggling in losses. Low-nickel material output remained stable in March, while production of medium and high-nickel materials increased. High-nickel material orders have seen a recent increase. Demand for EV cells continues to favor leading manufacturers, with steady demand for second and third-tier makers in March and no significant change expected in April. Looking forward, ternary cathode material prices are anticipated to remain stable.

LFP

LFP prices rose slightly to an average of 43,900 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW, with a range of 43,400 to 44,500 yuan/mt for EV battery LFP. Lithium carbonate prices remain stable, while iron phosphate prices may increase in April, raising LFP production expenses. Battery cell manufacturers maintain current LFP cathode processing fees despite slight cost increases, leveraging strong negotiation positions and not absorbing additional costs, putting pressure on LFP cathode producers. Negotiations between LFP producers and iron phosphate companies are expected to continue into April.

LCO

LCO prices remained unchanged in the week ending March 21, despite rising production costs from higher Co3O4 and lithium prices, leading to a subdued market. LCO production increased in March, but the market outlook for April is cautious, with battery cell makers purchasing LCO on-demand.

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