It is reported that in the US market on Thursday, despite the strong data on initial jobless benefits and factory orders released on Thursday, the dollar index did not rise but fell, hitting at least a four-week low of 92.27. Spot gold once fell not far above the $1800 mark and then rebounded from the low but still traded below the level. The three major indexes of u.s. stocks rose, with the s & p 500 up 0.4%, a new intraday high, and is expected to hit its 54th closing high in 2021. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said on Friday that the jobs recovery will determine the timing of scaling back its asset purchase program, making the non-farm payrolls report particularly eye-catching.
The number of US jobless claims fell last week to its lowest level since March 2020, another sign that the labour market is recovering from the novel coronavirus epidemic. In the week ended August 28, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 340000, with an estimated 345000.
Factory orders increased by 18.0% year-on-year. Although demand is shifting to services, demand for goods remains strong. This, coupled with the urgent need for companies to replenish inventories after inventories fell in the first half of this year, should support manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9 per cent of the US economy.
The figures come a day before the crucial August jobs report, and investors are closely watching the non-farm report to interpret how quickly the Fed will lift loose monetary policy. Economists expect 720000 jobs to be created in July, down from 943000 in July.
Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade, said: "as the number of first-time jobless claims has hit a pandemic low, there must be some optimism when we look to future employment prospects." "We are likely to go through some tug-of-war. On the one hand, the solid jobs report is a positive sign of economic recovery, and on the other hand, it will be a reason for the Fed to start scaling back its bond purchases."
Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell stressed the need for more strong jobs data before the Fed starts withdrawing its massive bond-buying program, bringing Friday's jobs report to the spotlight.
The dollar has been on the defensive over the past few weeks amid growing doubts about when the Fed will start to withdraw its stimulus package.
Dovish comments by Mr. Powell and other fed policy makers, coupled with weaker-than-expected data, sent the dollar index down about 1.4% since hitting a nine-month high on august 20.
In US trading, the dollar index fell to 92.27, not far from the previous session's four-week low of 92.37.
By contrast, the euro has been boosted by positive data, including strong manufacturing growth and inflationary pressures caused by supply chain chaos.
The latest data released on Thursday showed that factory gate prices in the 19 countries of the euro zone rose 2.3 per cent month-on-month and 12.1 per cent year-on-year, much higher than expected. Data released on Wednesday showed that inflation rose 3 per cent in August from a year earlier, the highest level in a decade.
The euro was also boosted by comments from some ECB hawks on Wednesday, including Austrian central bank president Jose Mann and German central bank president John Weidmann.
The euro continued to rise against the dollar and refreshed an one-month high of 1.1870.
Investors say it may be difficult for the ECB to make progress, perhaps because the ECB's guidance suggests that it will continue to buy assets until interest rates are raised as necessary.
Stephen Gallo, European head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said, "leveraged funds are shorting the euro-dollar, so since the Jackson Hole meeting, we have seen some bears covered, but the trend does not look intense and there are still a lot of people who want to go short again."
"as long as there is no reason for the dollar to weaken, I don't think the euro itself will rise significantly."
"given the flow of the dollar, one might argue that the market is now ready to expect non-farm payrolls data to be moderately lower than expected, possibly in the 55-600000 range," said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone.
In early trading, spot gold fell $8 in the short term to a new low of $1804.69, but then rebounded quickly from its low and is now trading at $1812.
Data show that the most active gold futures contract of COMEX sold 3448 lots in one minute at 22:04 Beijing time on September 2, with a total value of US $623 million.
The dollar index stayed near a multi-week low, causing gold prices for holders of other currencies to fall.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: "since late last week, we have seen a slight weakness in the dollar, which has helped push gold prices higher. At present, gold is still largely in the 'bargain buying' situation, and the gold price has successfully held above $1800. "
The three major indexes of U. S. stocks rose, with the S & P 500 climbing to an all-time high.
The s & p 500 index rose 0.4% to an intraday high and is expected to hit its 54th closing high in 2021. Driven by Apple and Chevron, the Dow rose more than 150 points, or 0.4%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index rose 0.4% to an all-time high.
Although September is one of the weakest seasonal months of the year, many people take a constructive view of the market as the technical background remains solid and the economy continues to recover from the epidemic.
"the US stock market continues to rise, driven by low volatility, and we believe that the breadth, volume positions and sentiment indicators of the stock market are all positive, and we expect the rally to further expand to new highs," Credit Suisse said in a report on Wednesday. "
