Silicon price double drop photovoltaic market reversal opportunity in the middle and lower reaches? This branch leader has quietly risen by 71%.

Silicon prices fell for the second time this week after falling for the first time this year.

Yesterday, the Silicon Industry Branch released the latest price information of polysilicon, and silicon prices continued to decline this week compared with last week. The transaction price range of single crystal compound material is 21.7-202000 yuan / ton, the average price is 211500 yuan / ton, down 2700 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the transaction price range of single crystal compact material is 21.50-200000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 208200 yuan / ton, down 2800 yuan / ton compared with last week. The transaction price of single crystal cauliflower is in the range of 21.2-198000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 205000 yuan / ton, down 3200 yuan / ton from last week.

The secondary market also heard the wind. Yesterday, photovoltaic upstream enterprises fell seriously, the leading silicon supplier Tongwei shares fell 5.56%, Touri Xinneng fell 5.39%, Hong Kong stocks Xinte Energy fell 4.93%, and other related stocks also fell a lot.

Why is the price of silicon falling?

The price of silicon has risen all the way since the beginning of the Lunar New year. Why did it cut prices for two consecutive weeks at the beginning of the third quarter?

The main reason is the pressure of public opinion brought about by the voices of all parties. On June 1, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association said that the price of silicon was soaring and the industry was miserable, pinning its hopes on the government's policies.

Then on June 10, Aixu shares in the photovoltaic industry hot and difficult issues symposium "on the photovoltaic industry hot and difficult issues symposium report materials" circulated on the network, and caused thousands of waves in the photovoltaic industry.

Materials, Aixu shares said that the current polysilicon prices continue to rise, is the current part of enterprises deliberately create polysilicon, silicon wafer shortage, hoarding strange, bid up prices.

This triggered a great response from the market. On the same day, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association once again issued an appeal, suggesting to resist excessive hoarding of polysilicon and silicon wafer products and driving up prices. It is suggested that the relevant departments should pay attention to the excessive price rise of photovoltaic raw materials such as polysilicon and guide them in a timely manner.

Another reason for the decline in the statistical price of silicon is the stalemate between buyers and sellers and there is no transaction price. According to the analysis of Central Plains Securities, the prices of single crystal re-feeding and single crystal compact materials have all declined slightly this week, which is not the actual transaction price reduction of the enterprise. it is only the average price adjustment caused by no transaction in the high part of last week's range. But in any case, the silicon material has stopped the upward trend.

The profit terminal of each link of silicon material price reduction

If the price of silicon material is loose, it will drive downstream demand and profit repair expectations, battery chips, auxiliary materials, components, inverters and other links are expected to benefit.

Affected by this factor, photovoltaic stocks in the middle and lower reaches have risen in a large area since that day. Take Jinlang Technology, the leader of the inverter, as an example, the stock price has risen more than 71% in only one month or so since June 10.

However, the decline in silicon may not be sustainable. According to the analysis of the Silicon Industry Branch, on the demand side, new silicon wafer production capacity such as Beijing Express, Gaojing, Hongyuan and other silicon wafers have been completed and put into production in late June, and the demand for silicon materials will be greatly supported from the third quarter. On the supply side, four 10,000-ton silicon companies will plan to overhaul in August, and their output will be significantly lower than the previous month. Therefore, although polysilicon enterprises may show a downward trend in silicon prices in order to benefit downstream due to lower operating rates or prices of existing wafer enterprises in the third quarter, however, the market fundamentals of increased demand and reduced supply will fundamentally support the limited decline in polysilicon prices.