The non-farm data on Friday and the higher-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI released in the US last night, coupled with the equally excellent March non-farm report, sent US stocks back to record highs after the market closed.
However, instead of continuing the rally, the US index weakened again below 93, indicating that the market has digested in advance the optimistic expectations of a strong US economic recovery. In the selling market, the dollar index refreshed its lowest level since March 25 to 92.54.
The benefit of gold rose sharply, rebounding rapidly after exploring the 1720 mark yesterday, continuing the rebound pattern at the end of last week. Gold approached the 1740 mark in Asian trading on Tuesday and was quoted at $1735.6 an ounce as of the afternoon.
PMI+ non-farm boosted optimistic expectations, digested ahead of time, the US index weakened, and gold approached 1740.
The March ISM non-manufacturing PMI released in the United States on Monday night was much higher than expected, with an actual public value of 63.70, an expected value of 59, and a previous value of 55.3.
Industry insiders commented that March ISM non-manufacturing PMI was a beautiful figure, reaching an all-time high, and new orders exceeded expectations.
Institutional review US ISM non-manufacturing PMI pointed out that the latest signs are that the US economy is booming driven by increased vaccination and massive fiscal stimulus measures.
Markets were closed on Friday during good Friday, but the United States released a non-farm payrolls report for March as usual, and the results were also much higher than expected.
Specifically, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, non-farm payrolls in the United States rose by 916000 in March, far more than expected by 647000, the largest increase since August last year. The unemployment rate in the United States recorded 6 percent in March, the same as expected, with a previous value of 6.2 percent, the lowest since March last year.
CNBC said economic growth was stronger as the US tried to shake off the effects of the novel coronavirus epidemic, with job growth in March at its fastest pace since last summer.
On Monday, when the market closed, US stocks continued to rise to record highs, with all three major indexes rising more than 1.1%. Both the Dow and the S & P 500 hit intraday highs.
The Dow closed up 373.98, or 1.13%, at 33527.19; the S & P closed up 56.85, or 1.41%, at 4076.72; and the Nasdaq composite index closed up 225.49, or 1.67%, at 13705.59.
But perhaps the market has already digested the optimistic expectations of a strong US economic recovery in advance. In the selling market, the dollar index refreshed its lowest level since March 25 to 92.54.
The benefit of gold rose sharply, rebounding quickly after hitting the 1720 mark on Monday, and the gold shock strength approached the 1740 mark in the Asian market on Tuesday.
Inflation expectations continue to rise, and Fed policy becomes the focus again, paying attention to the minutes of this week's meeting.
On Friday, the US non-farm sector was unexpectedly strong in March, and the market reaction foreshadowed better data in the future. Economists now predict that the US economy will grow by more than 9 per cent in the second quarter. In the coming months, the United States will add more than 1 million jobs a month.
On the inflation front, the Fed's two widely used indicators, CPI and PCE--, also show a steady rise in the cost of living.
At a time when the US economy is soaring, the labour market is gradually recovering and inflation is rising, the Fed is likely to come under fire for its easing policy.
It is reported that after the release of the employment report, the federal fund futures market began to advance the Fed's interest rate hike forecast from the spring of 2023 to December 2022, while the Fed's consensus is that it will not raise interest rates until the end of 2023.
As the US economy soars again, inflation is once again the focus of Wall Street, and every move of Fed policy undoubtedly affects the sensitive nerves of the market. At 02am on Thursday morning, the Fed will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting, from which investors can look for comments on inflation.
At the same time, if the Fed does release the hope of raising interest rates early, it is expected to boost the dollar index and once again depress US stocks and gold.
