The gold market rebounded this week, recovering the $1800 / oz mark without falling further. However, judging from the positions in the futures market, the situation for the bulls is still not good.
Long positions in Comex gold fell to their lowest level in 15 months, while short positions rose to their highest level in nearly a year, according to CFTC data.
Specific data show that in the week ending February 16, long positions in Comex futures decreased by 8736 to 125997 hands, while short positions increased by 10948 to 58041 hands over the same period.
The net long position of gold fell to 67956 hands, down 20% from the previous month.
During this period, the price of gold fell sharply, refreshing the lowest level in nearly seven months.
Soci é t é G é n é rale (Societe Generale) reported that bearish sentiment in the gold market was supported by a number of factors, whether long or short.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose, hitting its highest level since February last year. In addition, market expectations for the Biden 1.9 trillion stimulus and the recovery of the US economy after the distribution of the vaccine have become more positive. "
However, some analysts believe that large long positions are still an obstacle to the upward trend of gold prices.
(TD Securities) of TD Securities pointed out that many long positions were stopped after gold fell to $1790 an ounce last week.
"investors continue to sell long positions while bears increase as the key trend in gold has changed, the Treasury yield curve has become steeper and real interest rates are rising."
On the other hand, the position of silver futures is more stable.
In the same period, silver long positions increased by 1818 to 63102 hands, short positions increased by 499 to 24338 hands, and net long positions increased to 38764 hands, an increase of 3.5 per cent from the previous month.
