The recovery in global trade is expected to slow again in the first quarter of 2021 as the novel coronavirus epidemic continues to disrupt tourism, the United Nations reported on Wednesday. Global trade shrank by 9% in 2020.
The (UNCTAD) of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said the blockade led to a 15 per cent contraction in global trade in the first half of 2020 before rebounding in the second half, with global merchandise trade rising about 8 per cent in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. This is mainly due to developing countries, especially those in East Asia, where merchandise trade from the region rose 12 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year. "East Asian economies have been leading the recovery with strong export growth and increased global market share," UNCTAD said, adding that with the exception of energy and transport, most manufacturing rebounded in the fourth quarter. However, trade in services stagnated at the level of the third quarter, the report said, adding that China's service exports had performed relatively better than other countries, followed by India. UNCTA expects trade in goods to fall 1.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 from the previous quarter and trade in services to fall by 7 per cent, but said its forecasts were uncertain due to the uncertainty of the epidemic and stimulus packages.
Originally, the market expected that with the vaccination of novel coronavirus, the global epidemic would be gradually brought under control, thus promoting the global economic recovery. The gold price once fell below the 1800 mark, but it soon recovered, and it is now traded near the 1840 mark. Obviously, the United Nations report also reflects some problems, that is, the global economic recovery process may be slow, which provides some support for the gold price.
However, what gold bulls need to be wary of is that gold prices have rebounded since hitting 1785 last week and are currently under pressure from multiple resistance levels such as 1849 in the middle track of the daily Bollinger line, 1850 integer mark, 55-day moving average 1852, 200-day moving average 1854.5 and so on. Short-term gold prices face greater downside risks.
