Macro Roundup (Feb 3)

SHANGHAI, Feb 3 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar rose to two-month highs against the euro on Tuesday as markets saw the U.S. as likely to rebound sooner than Europe from the coronavirus pandemic.

The view was bolstered by moves in Washington toward more stimulus spending that contrasted with European lockdowns and expectations for a decline in euro zone GDP in the first three months of this year.

Initial European Union economic readings showed the euro zone contracted less than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020 but suggested that a steeper decline in the first quarter of this year. The euro zone economy dropped by 0.7% in the final quarter of 2020 as governments stepped up social restrictions, Eurostat revealed on Tuesday, while a preliminary reading points to an annual GDP contraction of 6.8%.

Those concerns were amplified after retail sales in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, plunged by more than forecast in December, according to data on Monday.

On Wall Street, stocks rallied for the second day on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 475 points for its best day since November. Investors returned to buying equities after the Reddit-fueled action that shook markets last week. The Dow is up 2.35% this week.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped more than 1.5%.

After a meteoric, albeit seemingly synthetic rise in GameStop last week caused by a short squeeze, shares have cratered more than 70% this week. Other Reddit trades have also come back down to Earth amid trading restrictions from major brokers.

Oil prices rose more than 2% on Tuesday, reaching their highest in 12 months after major producers showed they were reining in output roughly in line with their commitments.

The U.S. and global benchmarks rallied as optimism about more U.S. economic stimulus added to market bullishness from supply cuts.

Brent crude was up $1.22, or 2.2%, at $57.57 a barrel for its third straight day of gains, touching $58.05, the highest levels since January last year.

U.S. oil gained 2.26%, or $1.21, to settle at $54.76 per barrel, after touching a session high of $55.26, the highest in a year.

Silver slid more than 8% on Tuesday as small investors retreated after a rally to a near eight-year peak the previous session fuelled by a social media-driven trading frenzy.

Spot silver fell 8.2% to $26.59 an ounce. On Monday, it surged 7.3% to its highest since February 2013.

Contributing to the pullback, the CME Group raised maintenance margins on silver futures by 17.9% on Monday to tackle unusual market volatility. Also, posts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum at the centre of the last week’s action encouraged traders to steer clear of silver.

A private survey on China’s services sector activity in January is also set to be released, with the Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index expected around 9:45 a.m. HK/SIN.

Other key economic data slated for release today include Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) for January, US ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing PMI for January and crude inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the week ended January 29.