[SMM Metal Breakfast] the general rise of outer plate metals * the follow-up of the export restriction policy of Brazilian manganese ore * the inflection point of threaded storage can be seen vaguely.

Publié: Nov 27, 2020 07:12
[SMM Metal Breakfast] recycled copper goods arrive one after another * aluminum inventory continues to decline by nearly 20, 000 tons * social inventory of lead ingots has increased 64% in 2 months. October zinc mine imports have increased month-on-month * zinc smelter production reduction is not due to tight mining? * Silicon price rising steadily * Metal silicon export US dollar price difference is big * Brazilian manganese ore export restriction policy follow-up * Thread accumulation library inflection point can be seen vaguely * significant progress of Huayou Cobalt Indonesia wet process project * Trafigura signed 5-year cobalt supply agreement with EGC * Qingdao medium-term construction of 4 electric furnaces * Japan's largest steel company resumes blast furnace production * California plans to ban the sale of new oil-fired motor vehicles in 2035.

[overnight quotation] the outer plate metal rose across the board and crude oil lost the 45 mark.

[macro outlook] pay attention to the industrial climate index of the euro zone in November

"Click to see more metal futures.

Thursday, November 26th is Thanksgiving Day in the West, and all financial markets in the United States, including US stocks, are closed for one day. On Friday, November 27, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will close early at 1: 00 p.m. local time (2: 00 a.m. on Saturday). Trading will be 22-30-2-00 the next day, 3 hours earlier than the regular closing time.

LME inventory

Today's focus

[SMM: recycled copper goods have reached the expected total quantity one after another] on the whole, because the price of scrap copper and other raw materials is high, the scrap copper rod discount has not significantly expanded with the sharp rise in the disk, maintaining a discount of about 400 yuan. According to SMM, recycled copper goods imported by some domestic processing enterprises have arrived in Hong Kong one after another, more than 100 tons, the quantity is general, but not much, and it is expected that China's recycled copper imports will gradually increase in the future. "View details

[market changes: aluminum inventory continues to drop nearly 20, 000 tons of Shanghai aluminum once again stand at the Wanliu pass] Aluminum prices have continued to rise since November, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2012 contract has risen from 14410 on November 2 to a high of 16035 today, an increase of more than 13%. In the spot market, Wuxi was between 16130 and 16150 yuan / ton yesterday, and the discount was concentrated between 100,120 yuan / ton and 280yuan / ton every other month. The off-season is not light, low inventory plus de-inventory continues, further pushing up aluminum prices. "View details

[SMM data: electrolytic aluminum social inventory reduced weekly by 19000 tons to 596000 tons] on November 26th, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 596000 tons, weekly reduction of 19000 tons, Wuxi, Nanhai and other major consumer places to arrive less, the overall efforts to leave the warehouse maintained. "View details

[SMM analysis: social inventory of lead ingots has increased 64% in 2 months. Fundamental imbalance? On the supply side, the measures of environmental protection and production restriction in the north are a major factor restricting the release of primary reproduction, but the specific implementation depends on the weather pollution. At the same time, the newly expanded production capacity of recycled lead in Anhui, Tianjin and other provinces is expected to be put in before the end of the year. Offset by the two, the supply of lead ingots may be flat or increase slightly by the end of the year; On the consumer side, most of the large lead storage battery factories are already in full production, and the consumer demand for lead ingots is expected to remain stable before the end of the year, and we should also guard against the risk of a decline in the operating rate after the battery factories complete production and sales at the end of the year. To sum up, the trend of short-term accumulation of lead ingots may continue. "View details

[SMM analysis: zinc ore imports increased month-on-month in October in Peru] in November, due to the suspension of production at overseas Gamsberg mines, overseas minerals were reduced again, and import processing fees fell back to US $80-90 per dry ton. Domestic refineries are not willing to accept this processing fee, and some refineries should reduce production. Taken together, SMM expects imports of zinc concentrate to remain at about 300000 physical tons in November. "View details

[SMM survey: zinc smelter production reduction is not due to ore shortage? When will the sharp decline in concentrate TC stop? For zinc prices, SMM believes that zinc processing fees are still on a downward trend, and due to the accident at overseas zinc mines gamsberg, overseas TC is currently down to US $80, with mines offering US $85 in the first quarter. At present, the tight supply of ore is the main factor to support the zinc price, and it is expected that the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate still has room to fall in December. "View details

[SMM Express Review: Qingdao Intermediate Indonesia RKEF Phase I project signed a contract to build four electric furnaces with an annual output of about 260000 tons of nickel iron] according to SMM, the company currently holds about 2212 hectares of China-Canada coal mine in Kalimantan Province, Indonesia, 2014 hectares of Madani nickel mine in Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, and about 1963 hectares of BMU nickel mine (the company holds a total stake in BMU80%). The company has obtained the exploration and mining rights of the above minerals. The manganese mine acquired on the Indonesian island of Timor is about 476 hectares. Mineral resources have the characteristics of non-renewable, therefore, it has created the first-mover advantage and resource advantage for the construction of Qingdao Indonesia Comprehensive Industrial Park. "View details

[SMM Silicon Market Bulletin in November: supply shrinking consumption Wang Silicon Price rising] at present, the most fundamental reason for the rapid rise in domestic silicon prices lies in the growth of demand. at the same time, due to the limited start-up of large factories in the north, the national supply is on the low side compared with the same period last year, and the impact of the transformation of the rich and dry seasons on silicon prices has been amplified. The momentum for short-term price increases has not gone away, and it is not difficult for silicon metal to maintain its rising trend in December, but there may be a short-term price without a market before the Spring Festival, taking into account the abundant inventory conditions of traders and downstream, as well as the decline in transport capacity before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the domestic automobile consumption data and the start-up changes of organosilicon monomer plants, in addition, the uncertainty of whether large factories in Xinjiang can increase production also needs to be paid attention to. "View details

[SMM: metal silicon export dollar price difference] after the domestic silicon price continues to rise, the psychological price of foreign customers is also rising. At the same time, in the case of a sharp rise in sea freight and tight shipping space, in order to ensure normal production downstream abroad, the delivery time of foreign trade orders is also tight. Some exporters reported that the previous hoarding had been basically checked out, and the silicon price had risen sharply in the past two days when they were hesitant to replenish the inventory. The new order quotation can only be calculated based on the immediate purchase price, while some exporters still have stocks to digest. As a result, the transaction price of the same specification in US dollars is as high as 100 US dollars per ton.

[SMM Analysis: Brazilian Manganese Mine Export restriction Policy follow up: manganese Mine Export reduced by more than 25%? In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in the number of manganese mines in Brazil, and most of the manganese mines led by the state of Para do not have the relevant licenses. This policy is very clear about the restrictions on the relevant small manganese mines. This morning, some Brazilian manganese ore traders indicated that they would stop local customs declaration. A large mining company also confirmed the news, but said that the restriction mainly affected more than 46 per cent of high-grade Brazilian manganese mines, and it is estimated that the monthly impact could exceed 70, 000 tons (China's Brazilian manganese ore imports in October 2020 was 288400 tons, accounting for about 25 per cent of the impact). If this policy is strictly implemented, the high-grade manganese ore in Brazil will be wiped out in the future. "View details

[November 4th week Thread inventory report: the inflection point can be seen vaguely that the "slump" market will continue? The current seasonal weakening of demand has arrived as scheduled, the decline in building materials inventory has officially begun to slow down sharply, the overall situation of the weakening of rebar fundamentals has been decided, and prices have officially entered the downward range. However, taking into account the need for steel, and the demand for the "highland" next week-the overcast and rain in East China will be dispersed, there is a good chance that the social treasury will remain in a state of elimination, and the road to threaded depots has not yet come to an end. Therefore, after experiencing the recent emotional "smashing", there is a short cooling-off period in spot prices, and the market may have a short respite. "View details

[SMM analysis: the strong and weak pattern of the fundamental performance differentiation board may continue] according to SMM research, the blast furnace operating rate of SMM was 88.5% on November 26th, up 0.11% from last week and 0.3% lower than the same period last year. Although the news of limited production still came out this week, it did not last long and had little impact on blast furnace production, while some of the previous overhaul steel mills resumed production this week, leading to a slight pick-up in the operating rate of the blast furnace. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[Cochilco: will face severe challenges if the new expansion project fails to advance Chilean copper production on schedule] according to the website BNAmericas, the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) is worried that if the new projects and mine expansion plans fail to proceed as scheduled, the country's copper production will face severe challenges. "View details

[Zhongwang join hands with Chery to build China's first all-aluminum pure electric SUV] A few days ago, Chery New Energy launched the first electric medium-sized SUV-- ant. It is reported that the ant body is made of all-aluminum and supplied exclusively by Zhongwang Group. "from design and development to all-aluminum body manufacturing, to providing complete vehicles, we have participated in the whole process and provided a package of services." Zhongwang Group project manager said. "View details

[Baifeisa annual output of 300000 tons of recycled aluminum project and aluminum salt slag project signed Changge] November 19, Henan-Soviet cooperation project signing ceremony was held in Nanjing. Baifeisa (China) Investment Co., Ltd. annual output of 300000 tons of recycled aluminum project, annual output of 110000 tons of aluminum salt slag recycling project settled in Xuchang. Baifeisa China plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan in Changge City to build a project with an annual output of 300000 tons of recycled aluminum and an annual output of 110000 tons of aluminum slag recycling project, mainly to build salt slag recycling plants and recycled aluminum plants.

[Pure Minerals signed a Memorandum of understanding on Nickel off-take with SDI to purchase 6kt of Nickel per year] recently, Pure Minerals Ltd (ASX:PM1) entered into a non-binding MOU with Samsung SDI Co Ltd (MOU), to provide nickel from the TECH project, which is 100 per cent owned by its wholly-owned subsidiary Queensland Pacific (Queensland Pacific). Samsung SDI is a global leader in lithium-ion battery manufacturing and seeks to buy up to 6000 tons of nickel a year from the TECH project. "View details

According to recent reports, Australian company Nickel Mines has signed an agreement with partner Shanghai Decent Investment to buy 70 per cent of Indonesia's Angel Nickel project at a price of A $490 million. The project is located in (IWIP), Veda Bay Industrial Park, Indonesia. It consists of four rotary kiln furnace (RKEF) production lines and a 380MW self-contained power station, which is currently under construction in IWIP. "View details

On the morning of November 26th, Shandong Taijia 300000 ton cold rolled pickling line was put into production, with a design capacity of 300,000 tons / year, using mixed acid pickling. Today, the first roll of 304 4-foot cold rolling has been successfully put off the line, with a thickness of 1.2 mm, which means that Shandong Taijia Cold Rolling Project has been put into full production, and that Shandong Taijia Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has realized the whole process of stainless steel from steelmaking to hot rolling to cold rolling.

[major Progress of Huayou Cobalt Industry Indonesia Wet process Project multiple advantages in refining nickel cobalt hydroxide] November 20, the delivery ceremony of the high pressure reactor for the core equipment of Huayou Cobalt Industry & Sensong heavy Industry-Huayue Nickel Cobalt (Indonesia) wet process project was held in Nantong Plant of Sensong (Jiangsu) heavy Industry Co., Ltd. This delivery is another successful delivery after the completion of two autoclaves in Nanjing Baose Co., Ltd. Since then, all four autoclaves have been completed and delivered, indicating that the Huayue project is about to enter a new stage of key equipment installation, and the project construction of the second venture main position has entered a new mileage. "View details

[Trafigura signed a 5-year cobalt supply agreement with EGC] recently, Trafigura signed a five-year cobalt supply agreement with Entreprise G é n é raledu Cobalt, a state-owned manual cobalt buyer of (DRC) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The trade agreement includes funding from Trafigura to finance the establishment of tightly controlled artisanal mining areas, the installation of ore purchase stations and the development of supply chain tracking. At the same time, Trafigura will receive deliveries of cobalt hydroxide from small and artisanal mines through EGC.

[Shandong Shenghe New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. 5500 tons / year rare earth separation project is about to be moved into the park] on November 19th, the Shandong Provincial Industry and Information Department announced the 5500 tons / year rare earth separation and relocation project of Shandong Shenghe New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. It is understood that the project moved into the park for Zhongkai rare Earth Materials Co., Ltd., and Synchronize completed the equity injection project of China rare Earth (Shandong) rare Earth Co., Ltd. "View details

The new version of "measures for the implementation of Steel production capacity replacement" has completed the solicitation of social opinions and is expected to be officially launched before the end of the year! According to relevant authoritative sources, the new measures for the implementation of capacity replacement in the iron and steel industry and the steel project filing policy will better guide localities and enterprises to standardize the construction of iron and steel projects and ensure that the total steel production capacity is only reduced but not increased. It is reported that in order to effectively curb overcapacity, it is proposed to increase the proportion of replacement in environmentally sensitive areas from not less than 1.25 to 1.5, and the proportion of reduction and replacement in non-environmentally sensitive areas to 1.25 to 1.25, so as to further increase efforts to reduce production capacity through capacity replacement. At the same time, precise policies should be implemented to implement a differential capacity replacement ratio policy for substantive mergers and restructuring, electric furnace short-process steelmaking and non-blast furnace ironmaking, so as to promote industry transformation, upgrading and structural adjustment.

[Japan's largest steelmaker resumes blast furnace production] Nippon Steel (Nippon Steel), Japan's largest long-process steelmaker, recently restarted its No. 2 blast furnace at the Junjin plant in the east of Chiba prefecture near Tokyo to cope with growing steel demand from downstream consumers, especially automakers. The internal furnace capacity of No. 2 blast furnace in Junjin plant is 4500 cubic meters. Nippon Steel temporarily shut down the blast furnace on June 14 in response to the novel coronavirus epidemic.

Macro focus

[Wang Yi: speed up the docking of the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative with the ROK's national development strategy to reach the second phase of the free trade agreement between China and South Korea as soon as possible. State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is on an official visit to the ROK, held talks with ROK Foreign Minister Kang Jinghe in Seoul. Wang Yi said that the two sides should further strengthen anti-epidemic cooperation, strengthen remote prevention and control measures, consolidate the achievements of epidemic prevention cooperation, and improve and gradually expand the scope of application of "fast access." The two sides should maintain exchanges at all levels, deepen practical cooperation, speed up the docking of the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative with South Korea's national development strategy, and reach the second phase of the China-ROK free trade agreement as soon as possible.

[World Health Organization (WHO): more than 60.07 million confirmed cases by COVID-19 globally] according to World Health Organization (WHO) 's latest real-time statistics, as of 18:38 central European time on November 26th (01:38 on November 27th), there were a total of 60074174 confirmed cases and 1416292 deaths worldwide. On the 26th, COVID-19 confirmed 577198 new cases and 11263 new deaths worldwide.

[12.85 million COVID-19 in the United States] according to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 16:30 eastern time on the 26th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases by COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 12.85 million, reaching 12859717, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 260000, reaching 263199. In the past 24 hours, there have been 132270 new confirmed cases and 1719 new deaths in the United States.

[Canada may approve Pfizer's novel coronavirus vaccine around December] the Canadian government can approve Pfizer's novel coronavirus vaccine "around December," roughly the same time as the United States and the European Union, senior Canadian officials said. Earlier, Health Canada said it might approve the vaccine early in the first quarter of next year.

Terminal information

[Ministry of Commerce: stabilize and expand automobile consumption to boost household appliance furniture consumption] the Ministry of Commerce held an on-the-spot meeting on the action plan to promote consumption upgrading in Beijing. The meeting stressed that next year is the opening year of the 14th five-year Plan, and efforts should be made to create a new situation in consumption promotion work. First, it is necessary to promote the expansion and quality of urban and rural consumption. Cultivate international consumption center cities, promote the transformation and upgrading of pedestrian streets with high quality, optimize convenient consumption carriers, and promote e-commerce into rural areas. Second, it is necessary to accelerate the release of the consumption potential of goods and services. Stabilize and expand automobile consumption, boost the consumption of household appliances and furniture, expand the consumption of imported goods, promote catering consumption, and carry out consumption promotion activities through innovation. The third is to promote the integration of traditional and new consumer innovation. Promote traditional consumption and cultivate a new type of consumption.

[Tesla raises the price of Model S and other models in Europe] Tesla's website shows that the company has raised the price of Model S electric cars across Europe, with different rates in different countries.

[Evergrande automobile new annual production of 100000 sets of spare parts project can be matched with Hengchi vehicle production] found from the environmental information disclosure platform of Shanghai enterprises and institutions, the new 100000 sets of new energy vehicle body parts construction project major changes environmental impact report of the public opinion solicitation network publicity. The construction unit of the project is Hengda Hengchi New Energy vehicle (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., which mainly produces large body panels, key stamping parts, body assembly and other automotive parts, with an annual production capacity of 100000 sets. Bai Yiyang of the International Research Department of China Merchants Bank believes that Evergrande's new auto parts project can be used for the production of Hengchi complete vehicles.

[California plans to ban the sale of new fuel vehicles in 2035] on September 23, local time, under the devastating wildfire season, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order banning the sale of new internal combustion-powered passenger cars in California by 2035, which means there will be no new gasoline and diesel cars in California.

[Guangdong has built more than 110000 industrial chains and supply chains of 5G base stations] it is learned from the 2020 World 5G Conference held in Guangzhou today that as one of the regions with the fastest development and most active innovation of the 5G industry in China, Guangdong has built base stations and users in the forefront of the country, and has formed a relatively perfect industrial chain and supply chain. The latest data show that at present, Guangdong has more than 1600 5G-related enterprises, accounting for about 1/3 of the country; Huawei and ZTE have more than 5000 necessary 5G patents, accounting for about 1/3 of the world; and the province has built more than 110000 5G base stations and nearly 27 million 5G users, initially forming a world-class 5G industrial agglomeration area.

Déclaration sur la source des données : À l'exception des informations publiques, toutes les autres données sont traitées par SMM sur la base d'informations publiques, d'échanges avec le marché et en s'appuyant sur le modèle de base de données interne de SMM. Ils sont fournis à titre indicatif uniquement et ne constituent pas des recommandations décisionnelles.

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