SMM News: on Wednesday, spot gold hit a new low in nearly a week, and the short-term is expected to continue to be under pressure. The US index rebounded after hitting a seven-day low of 92.207, as positive news from vaccine trials continued to spark market optimism. However, given the financial difficulties faced by millions of Americans, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell hinted that gold prices are limited by extending the emergency loan program and Trump is still unwilling to cooperate with the victorious President Joe Biden in the fight against the epidemic.
Pfizer: phase 3 trials show that the vaccine is 95% effective
According to Pfizer, the novel coronavirus vaccine showed 95 per cent effectiveness in the final efficacy analysis of the phase 3 trial. The efficacy of novel coronavirus vaccine is consistent among demographics of different ages, races and nationalities. It is planned to apply for authorization for emergency use of novel coronavirus vaccine in the United States within a few days.
Pfizer also said it had observed more than 94 per cent of the effect of novel coronavirus vaccine on adults over the age of 65. Most of the side effects are mild and disappear quickly, and the only significant side effect with a frequency of more than 2% is fatigue, which is 3.7%.
Gold fell nearly $12 after new positive news on vaccines, hitting a four-day low of $1864.03 an ounce. But US consumer spending is slowing in the run-up to the holiday shopping season, raising fears that an increase in the number of novel coronavirus cases will stifle a still-fragile economic recovery.
Us retail sales grew less than expected in October and are likely to slow further as the number of new cases spirals and household incomes fall as tens of millions of unemployed Americans lose government financial support. The epidemic has killed more than 254000 people in the United States and shows no sign of slowing down, leaving millions out of work.
Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostick said Tuesday that weak retail sales in October showed that the U. S. economy faces short-term risks. Some families ran out of money after massive layoffs, and the rebound in the epidemic may have curbed shopping or led to a new round of business closures.
Millions of Americans are financially vulnerable.
Two key rescue programs are about to expire, triggering the biggest cut in unemployment benefits since the end of July. Unless Congress extends the epidemic-related relief program to provide unemployment benefits to a wider workforce for a longer period of time, millions of Americans will find themselves unable to receive unemployment benefits by the end of the year.
U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said on Tuesday that he was open to the introduction of a $500 billion novel coronavirus aid package. But he added that there had not been any private discussions with Democrats in control of the House of Representatives or President-elect Joe Biden.
Some economists point out that as the number of novel coronavirus infections soars, unemployment is likely to rise during the winter and the need for support increases. At the same time, the number of people receiving regular unemployment benefits is declining as people facing long-term unemployment are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits and turn to epidemic relief programs.
If there is no change, more than 13 million people will be at risk of ending the bailout, which may deprive them of the money to pay rent, groceries and other bills. Falling household incomes, coupled with an increase in infections, may further slow consumer spending.
"the weak US retail data shows the impact of reduced financial support," said a trader at a large Japanese bank. But it is hard to ignore the fact that the government no longer has as much money to spend as it did earlier this year, which means investors will expect more action from the Fed and a flattening of the US yield curve. "
OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley pointed out to clients: "the US dollar continues to fall due to poor US retail sales data and increased concerns about the downstream effects of the resurgence of the novel coronavirus epidemic. This makes the Fed's December meeting really'in suspense', and further easing is expected to add to the downward pressure on the dollar before the arrival of 2021. "
Powell hinted that the emergency loan program should be extended.
Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said Tuesday that there is still a long way to go before the economy recovers. He pointed out that the current surge in novel coronavirus cases is a big problem, the economy will continue to need fiscal and monetary policy support, and now is not the time to stop emergency plans aimed at mitigating the economic impact of the pandemic.
"I don't think it's time yet, and I don't think it will be soon," Powell said. "I don't think it's time to stop a series of lending programs set up by the Federal Reserve last spring with authorization from the Treasury and financial support from Congress," Powell said. Powell said he thought the plans might still be needed after December 31, his clearest statement to date. Many of the plans were scheduled to expire at the end of the year.
Powell said the recent news that experimental vaccines were very effective in trials was "certainly good" in the medium term, but he pointed out that even in the best scenarios, these vaccines will not be widely available in a few months. "the virus is spreading rapidly and the coming months will be challenging."
While recent positive news about the experimental novel coronavirus vaccine raised the likelihood that the economy would recover more fully next year, Powell told an online event hosted by California's Bay area Council (The Bay Area Council) that the coming months could be "challenging."
He again called on Congress to provide more financial support to provide transition funds to families before mass vaccination begins. Powell said the current rise in infections and hospitalizations is "very worrying" because it may scare people from participating in economic activities, thus slowing economic growth.
Some Republicans in Congress have been reluctant to extend these programs, especially those that provide loans to local governments. However, Powell and other Fed officials are concerned that differences in views on the state of the economy could stalemate the debate on an appropriate policy response.
HSBC believes that the prospect of broader easing is still good for gold and that the risk now is whether the pandemic will worsen and how quickly vaccines can be provided, and that the global fiscal and monetary response to the epidemic will remain highly loose.
Biden will focus on the epidemic after taking office.
Although the results of the two vaccine trials were optimistic earlier this month, the number of novel coronavirus cases continued to soar, with about 1 million new confirmed cases each week. This rate of growth has placed a heavy burden on hospitals and prompted once-reluctant Republican governors to wear masks and other restrictions, which has also made investors nervous.
U.S. president-elect Joe Biden has been preparing to take office on January 20, promising to make fighting the epidemic a top priority when he takes office on January 20. Biden appointed several senior White House aides on Tuesday and met with a team of advisers to work out an anti-epidemic plan. On Wednesday, he will meet with medical workers on the front line of novel coronavirus's epidemic by video.
Vivek Murthy, a former director of the US Health Bureau and now co-director of the Biden anti-epidemic working group, said in a phone call with reporters on Tuesday that preventing Biden's transition advisers from meeting with government experts could undermine their ability to respond to the epidemic next year. Some doctors and nurses' associations issued letters on Tuesday urging the Trump administration and the Biden team to share key novel coronavirus epidemic data.
Trump refused to acknowledge that defeat had led to an impasse in the normal transition to a new government, and that the Biden team had no access to federal money and office space until the current administration acknowledged that Biden had won the election. Mr Biden's team of advisers warned that President Trump's refusal to cooperate on the transfer of power could undermine the fight against the epidemic and affect vaccine distribution plans.
The (GSA) of the Federal General Administration, controlled by Trump's appointees, has yet to acknowledge Biden's victory in the November 3 election. Although Trump has launched a series of lawsuits, judicial experts believe there is little chance of changing the outcome of the election. Election officials from both parties said there was no evidence of major violations.
The Democratic administration is still quite likely to launch a larger fiscal stimulus package and should continue to provide support for a rise in the golden medium term. But gold is under pressure in the short term and US stocks are at record highs, suggesting that risk-taking is heating up and gold will face more pressure if Treasury yields rebound further.
On the daily line, spot gold is in a downward C wave starting from $1966, hovering around the C wave 38.2% target of $1879, and the lower support position looks toward the 50% target of $1852 and the 61.8% target of $1825.
C wave is the sub-wave, ((iv)) trend of adjusting ((iv)) wave, which starts from 2075 US dollars, continues to extend. On the hour chart, the C wave material shows a five-wave pattern, in which the gold price is currently in the (iii) wave, with a 38.2% target around $1855.
