Net imports of primary aluminum for the full year 2024 are up 44.8% YoY, while the import window remains closed [SMM Analysis].

SMM  January 20:

Primary Aluminum Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum imports in December 2024 were approximately 161,400 mt, up 7.1% MoM but down 7.8% YoY. From January to December, the cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 2.136 million mt, up 38.5% YoY.
Primary Aluminum Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum exports in December 2024 were approximately 12,800 mt, down 32.1% MoM and 13.9% YoY. From January to December, the cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 121,000 mt, down approximately 19.4% YoY.
Net Primary Aluminum Imports: In December 2024, China's net primary aluminum imports were approximately 149,000 mt, up 12.7% MoM but down 7.3% YoY. From January to December, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports totaled about 2.015 million mt, up 44.8% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

Import Analysis:

From the perspective of import origin, China's primary aluminum imports in December 2024 mainly came from Russia, China, Iran, India, Australia, and other countries and regions. Among them, imports from Russian aluminum totaled approximately 125,000 mt in December, up 25.0% MoM, accounting for 77.5% of the total imports in December. For the whole year, imports from Russia totaled about 1.128 million mt, accounting for 52.8% of the annual total imports. Additionally, imports from China in December were approximately 11,000 mt, down 62.9% MoM. This portion mainly consisted of aluminum ingots processed from Chinese alumina exported to Russia and then re-imported into the Chinese market. From the perspective of the origin of aluminum ingots, Russian aluminum ingots still dominated. From January to December, this form of imports totaled 400,000 mt, accounting for 16.8% of China's total primary aluminum imports. In December, overseas primary aluminum imports were in a loss-making state, with losses widening. However, imports from India, Malaysia, and Iran showed significant MoM growth.

Trade Mode: Regarding the trade mode of primary aluminum imports in December, the losses on domestic primary aluminum imports widened, reducing suppliers' willingness to clear customs and ship to the Chinese market. Most imports were executed under long-term contracts, with total imports up 7.1% MoM. Among these, imports directly entering the Chinese market through Ordinary Trade amounted to only 60,000 mt, down approximately 9.3% MoM. Imports through Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area and processing trade modes such as tolling saw a turnaround, rising 25.5% MoM. Among these, tolling imports mainly referred to the aforementioned imports from China to China. This trade mode showed overall growth throughout the year and may become the primary mode of primary aluminum imports in the future. Customs data showed that from January to December, primary aluminum imports through tolling trade totaled about 410,000 mt, accounting for approximately 19.1% of China's total primary aluminum imports. Tolling and Ordinary Trade imports mainly reflect the actual consumption of overseas primary aluminum in China. In December, the total imports through these two modes were approximately 106,000 mt, and from January to December, the total imports were about 1.453 million mt, accounting for approximately 68.0% of China's total imports.

SMM Comments: Recently, LME aluminum prices have continued to rise, widening the price spread between domestic and overseas markets. Currently, the loss on domestic primary aluminum imports exceeds 3,000 yuan/mt, reducing overseas suppliers' willingness to clear customs and ship to China. Some aluminum ingots at ports have been redirected to other countries and regions. Therefore, China's future net primary aluminum imports may mainly rely on tolling and processing trade volumes, while Ordinary Trade is expected to decline due to the significant impact of the inverted domestic and overseas aluminum prices. SMM predicts that China's net primary aluminum imports in January will likely see no increase.

(The above information is based on market data and comprehensive evaluations by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data Source: SMM Click on the SMM Industry Database for more information