US non-farm payrolls were revised down by 818,000. Thailand is investigating the dumping of Chinese aluminum semis [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

SMM, Aug 22: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,815 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,815 yuan/mt, a low of 19,705 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,780 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.15%. Overnight, LME 3M aluminum opened at $2,482.5/mt, with a high of $2,495/mt, a low of $2,452.5/mt, and closed at $2,479/mt, down $23/mt or 0.92%.

Macro side, US non-farm payrolls data saw a significant downward revision, exposing employment downside risks. Additionally, recent US Fed inflation data performed well, and the market continues to trade on the expectation of a rate cut in September, with the US dollar index running weak. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum ingot inventory continues to show a downward trend, and domestic aluminum supply remains stable at high level. Downstream, industrial extrusion orders have picked up, leading to a slight increase in the operating rate of leading extrusion companies. Meanwhile, in the traditional peak season and under domestic economic stimulus policy, downstream consumption is expected to improve. Recently, external macro sentiment has been friendly, and the supply-demand mismatch has somewhat eased. SMM expects short-term aluminum prices to show a rebound and fluctuate. Continued attention is needed on aluminum consumption and aluminum social inventory changes.