Silicon metal prices fell this week, with further declines expected

This week, the spot and futures prices of silicon metal showed divergent trends. These are silicon metal prices (by type) as of May 23, and their WoW changes: standard #553 silicon metal (12,900-13,100 yuan/mt, flat WoW)), above-standard #553 silicon metal (13,000-13,200 yuan/mt, -100 yuan/mt WoW), 441# silicon metal (13,300-13,500 yuan/mt, -150 yuan/mt WoW); 421# silicon metal (13,500-13,700 yuan/mt, -150 yuan/mt WoW); 3303# silicon metal (13,900-14,100 yuan/mt, -100 yuan/mt WoW). In the spot market, major factories in North China offered discounts in the early week, with official quotes generally reduced by 300 yuan/mt. Major factories offered discounts only to certain customers last week, but this week saw widespread discounts regardless of downstream demand volume. Additionally, some leading enterprises lowered offers, making their prices more competitive than those of most small and medium-sized silicon companies and traders. As a result, downstream orders shifted to leading enterprises, weakening spot traded prices. In the futures market, driven by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment, the most-traded silicon metal contract once rose to 12,450 yuan/mt, up nearly 800 yuan/mt from last week's low levels. The continuous rise in futures prices attracted more arbitrage activities from factories, involving both near-month contracts and the Si2412 contract.

Fundamentally, the supply side saw Sichuan resume production and leading companies show a strong willingness to sell. Demand side, bearish factors dominated the silicon metal market. The polysilicon demand is expected to weaken, and downstream industries experienced low profits or even losses. Bullish factors, such as some silicon companies fulfilling contracts may cause tight spot market liquidity, exist. However, if leading companies actively sell, there will be a low likelihood of tight liquidity in the short term. Overall, it is expected that spot silicon metal prices will barely rise following the market, and will mainly drop slightly in the short term.